Under The Weeping Moon

2011-02-12T07:31:00.000-05:00

If you happened to read the last post that had a similar picture to this one, you should have an idea of what this one is about. Following his third consecutive win in the Red Bank Handicap held at Monmouth Park, Royal Kiwi was entered in the Oceanport Handicap also held at Monmouth.

Date	Race #	Race	Winner	Age
7/6/2003	224	Oceanport Handicap	Purple Passer	-3yo
7/5/2009	4259	Oceanport Handicap	Cyberstar	-3yo
7/4/2010	5326	Oceanport Handicap	Higher & Higher	-4yo
7/3/2011	6654	Oceanport Handicap	Allied Assault	-4yo
7/8/2012	8199	Oceanport Handicap	Royal Kiwi	-5yo
7/8/2013	9643	Oceanport Handicap	Royal Kiwi	-6yo
7/8/2014	11087	Oceanport Handicap	Royal Kiwi	-7yo

You knew that was coming though, didn't you? This race was a bit more of a challenge than the Red Bank. Royal Kiwi was only the 2:1 second choice in this one behind the 8:5 favorite, The Fates. In the early going, it was a bit nerve-wracking as Royal Kiwi trailed the field by up to eight lengths, while the favorite wasn't really having to work all that hard up front. About halfway through the eight and one-half furlong race, he started to slowly draw closer to the leaders. At the top of the lane, he had a full head of steam going; easily making the lead when he caught Road To Zion a little flat-footed. He opened up a little under three length lead, and cruised under the wire in 1:40.77. The winning time was just 0.27 seconds off the track and stakes record that he set in the 2012 version of the race.

Royal Kiwi is now perfect in six starts at the New Jersey track. He holds the track record at both a mile on the turf and a mile and one-sixteenth on the turf. In his six races at Monmouth, his average PSR is 105.79. Six of his fifteen career wins and $480,000 of his $1.7 million career earnings have now come at Monmouth.

2011-02-07T09:05:00.000-05:00

What do A Bus, Smart Money, Princess Royale, Color of Fame, Daredevil, Southern Charm, Braveheart, and Star Studded have in common? Yes, they are all a part of the top 25 overall earnings list. But, that's not the answer that I was looking for. What if we add to the list the names of Fine Memories, Chatterbox, Vampirical, Blushing Approval, Nightwing, Missmelodramatic, Sir Empire, Case Closed, She's A Prize, Flow Diagram, Camena's Thunder, Led Astray, Faldo, Isca's Revenge, Retribution, Malvern Hill, Point Taken, A View to a Kill, Final Problem, and Two Thousand? Yes, that's a whole lot of total wins and money earned. But again, that's not the answer that I was looking for.

What if I told you that no one on that list has run a race over eleven furlongs on the turf as fast as Magic Is Might has? Go ahead and look through that list again if you want. That's pretty impressive company to keep. And yes, they have all run that distance at some point in their careers.

In the recent Bowling Green Handicap, the 4YO Brilliant colt did what only one other horse in the history of Photo Finish has managed to do, go sub-2:12 for eleven furlongs on turf. His winning time of 2:11.56 bested the previous record of 2:11.91 set by Final Problem during the 2013 season. Perhaps even more impressive was just how easily he ran the race. He ran most of the race in "3rd gear", with only about one furlong at full effort. For the last half of a furlong, he coasted and pulled away to a nearly five length victory.

For his career, the huge dark chestnut colt has a record of 17:7-2-2, $1,008,625. In his five starts this year, he's had two wins, earned $410,000, and has an average PSR of just under 111. In his last ten races, he's won six times, earned $967,500, and has an average PSR of over 106. He's one of the better horses around...that no one knows. He's Brilliant's first millionaire offspring, and I have a feeling that he won't be the last one either.

2011-02-07T03:33:00.000-05:00

When I first joined Photo Finish, I took the $200,000 that was allotted to new stables and jumped into the fray known as the year end auction. One of the five horses I picked up in my first auction, was a Lemon Drop Kid x Pompeii filly by the name of Lava Drop. The big gray filly, acquired for the bargain price of $29,000, was our stable's first star. Over her stellar four-year racing career, Lava Drop won fifteen times from thirty-seven starts earning over $2.6 million. Her efforts kept the stable afloat in our inaugural season.

This week, in the Chenery Stakes, Olympus Mons, her most recent foal to hit the track, broke his maiden in his third career start. With the win, all five of her offspring have now reached the winner's circle. You'd think that I'd be happy with 100% winners so far. Happy wouldn't be the first word that comes to mind though when thinking about her progeny. Disappointed is a good fit. Puzzled, even more apropos. After the racing career that Lava Drop had for us, I was excited to see her produce some future champions. I'm still waiting.

For her first date in the breeding shed, Lava Drop was shipped off to KRF Stables to visit the legendary Revenge. As I recall, both parties were very excited about the prospect of this pairing, as the fee was waived. The resulting filly, Malevolent Lemon, looked just like her sire...and ran like neither of her parents. Despite never posting a PSR greater than 85 while she raced under our colors, Malevolent Lemon managed to cash in thirteen of fourteen races with us. Her first career race was the only time she failed to bring home a check before she was sold at auction for $75,000. Her career racing record ended up being 18:2-3-4, $115,700. Sadly, she is still the current leader in earnings for Lava Drop's offspring.

For foal number two, Lava Drop was sent to visit Dubai Gold, a very successful racer that has produced some nice offspring in limited opportunities. The resulting colt, Lava Gold, flashed some talent, but the instances were too few and too far between. As a 3YO, he dropped a couple of 100+ PSR's, including a 107 in his tenth and final race for the stable, a win in the Dayjur Handicap. We had grown tired of him by that point though and he was shipped off to the year end auction where he brought back $26,000. His record now stands at 23:2-3-0, $111,625.

Foal number three is the most talented of the bunch so far, it's just taken a while to happen. Lava Bomb is a little dark gray filly by Blitzkrieg (his one and only foal). Blitzkrieg was a speedy, seven furlong specialist that raced for us for a little over two years. He definitely wasn't a "name", but we figured we'd see what would happen by pairing up two speedy, seven furlong horses. For the first two years and five races of her career, it didn't look promising. Then, the light bulb seemed to come on when she turned four. She broke her maiden in her first start of the year and posted a 100 PSR in the process. Her last start resulted in a nice second place finish with a 107 PSR. Halfway though her 4YO season, her record is only 8:1-1-2, $70,350, but her prospects are looking up. By the end of the year, she should take over the top spot in earnings from Malevolent Lemon.

Next up came a trip to see Octagonal Waltz, a very productive sire whom we'd already had some success in using. Dancinroundthefire is a big, dark gray filly. Very reminiscent of her mother...in looks anyway. Actually, I don't want to be too harsh. It looks like she'll be a lot like Malevolent Lemon...a check earner at the lower levels. At the moment, her record stands at 7:1-1-0, $47,000. She's brought home a check in her last four races, and is a nose away from having won her last two races. Still, stardom isn't in her future.

Lava Drop's next date was with Mars, the 2006 BC Sprint winner. Lava Drop finished third in that race, less than a length from the winner. Two of the top three finishers in a Breeders Cup race that was run in track record time (at that point in history). Sounds like a winning combination, no? Well, it remains to be seen. It did only take Olympus Mons three races to notch his first win, and I will grant him that the win came in his only start thus far on his preferred surface of turf. Still, despite the fairly easy win, color me skeptical about his future prospects. I hope that I'm wrong, but it looks like prior experience of the Lava Drop offspring has kind of put a damper on my expectations.

The next year, Lava Drop was leased to Foxies Lodge in a deal that brought back a couple of young racers, What I've Done and Lithium. She ended up being sent to Big N' Tough to produce a filly by the name of Care Bear Stare. Despite her fetching a tidy sum of $315,000 at last year's auction, I'm thinking that her already being on her second stable before even reaching the track isn't a good sign. Another dud on the way? Only time will tell.

For her final foal to date, Lava Drop was sent to my all-time favorite, Silver Charm. It was a pairing that I'd always wanted to try, and with Silver Charm in his last year at stud before being pensioned, it was now or never. It's way too early to tell anything about the little, dark gray colt, but Drop Of Silver isn't instilling much confidence in our training staff to date.

That's a pretty nice group of stallions that Lava Drop has been sent to, and to date, it's resulted in a record of 59:7-8-6, $380,675, with the most talented one being from an unknown. No wonder why I'm so puzzled. What is in the works for this year's pairing? No idea! Maybe I should just pick a random horse that I like and throw them together without much thought. It can't turn out any worse than what's happened so far, can it?

2011-02-06T18:34:00.000-05:00

Back in week twenty-two, Royal Kiwi cruised across the finish line of the Red Bank Handicap to no fanfare. Looking at it objectively, should this victory have been noticed? It was a comfortable, three-length win by the 1:2 favorite. The other three horses in that field have a combined total of six victories to their name in sixty-five career starts. They have two PSR's of above 100...as a group! So, a heavy favorite easily won a race that he was supposed to win. What's the big deal?

Date	Race #	Race	Winner	Age
5/25/2009	4142	Red Bank Handicap	Sky Captain	-3yo
5/24/2010	5195	Red Bank Handicap	Thunderdome	-4yo
5/23/2011	6451	Red Bank Handicap	Bellfast Lad	-4yo
5/28/2012	8027	Red Bank Handicap	Royal Kiwi	-5yo
5/28/2013	9471	Red Bank Handicap	Royal Kiwi	-6yo
5/28/2014	10915	Red Bank Handicap	Royal Kiwi	-7yo

Three in a row! I'd say that's a pretty big deal...or at least you would think that it was.The Red Bank definitely isn't a marquee race; most of the PF community probably doesn't even know it exists. Still, winning the same race in three consecutive years is pretty impressive. Just winning in three straight years is an accomplishment. If I had to guess, I'd say that the overwhelming majority of racers can't make that claim.

The Majestic Son 7YO now has a career record of 32:14-2-3, $1,635,200. Starting with the 2013 Red Bank, Royal Kiwi has now won five of six races, and is unbeaten in two starts as a 7YO. Since coming to Under The Weeping Moon (as a $10,000 purchase at the 2010 end of year auction), his record is 24:13-2-2, $1,507,500. His resume includes four track records and fifteen 100+ PSR's. In his first start of the year, he set the Arcadia Handicap record with a time of 1:33.56 for the mile on the turf at Santa Anita. The 1:34.66 he posted in the Red Bank was just .12 off of the Monmouth Park track record that he set in the 2012 version of the race.

Geezer Brigade not ready to be put out to pasture.

2010-06-18T19:31:00.001-04:00

It's been a while since I broke down how the older contingent of my stable was doing. The eight 6 and 7YO's are still chugging right along. Through thirty-eight starts, they have failed to cash only twice. Their record stands at 38:9-12-6-9, $1,585,000. Their average PSR for the year stands at 95.183. You’ve got to love the geezers.

Something that's never been done before?*

2010-06-18T02:38:00.004-04:00

Just this past week, Royal Kiwi won his third straight race on the year. While that’s nice, it really isn’t all that special. Many horses will do that every year, let alone it being “something that’s never been done before”. Here’s the kicker though, he was the defending champion in all three races.

As a 5YO, Royal Kiwi won the Red Bank Handicap and Oceanport Handicap at Monmouth Park. Both wins were accomplished in track record times, which still stand. The third win came in the Keeneland Turf Mile. He just missed a third track record by .02 seconds. His PSR’s for the three wins were 100, 116, and 108.

To start off his 6YO campaign, Royal Kiwi attempted to defend yet another title. In the Canadian Turf Handicap, he finished second by a quarter of a length. After the close miss and 101 PSR, he finished third in his next race with a 108 PSR. Then came the current win streak with PSR’s of 97, 111, and 104.

Royal Kiwi has one more race on his schedule for the 2013 season; the Dahlia Handicap at Hollywood Park (no, he won’t be defending). Depending on how that race goes will determine what he’ll be doing as a 7YO…going to the breeding shed or continuing on the track. If it’s the latter, I can make a pretty good guess on at least three of his races for next year.

* I’m just assuming that it’s never been done before. Someone may come up with another example, but this seemed like a safe assumption.
** It's been pointed out that Regal Son has also done this. Still, that's pretty good company for Royal Kiwi to keep.

2010-06-10T10:04:00.003-04:00

Ok, here are the current BC Classic rankings. As an added bonus, I'm also going to include the top 20 times run at the Classic distance (and surface) for the year.

1) Regal Son - 135.558771375 (8)
2) Escaflowne - 130.660567 (1)
3) No More Lies - 130.5986499 (1)
4) Krazy Sheikh - 126.86975275 (4)
5) Gradient - 124.4160370375 (8)
6) Missed Pass - 123.62059822 (1)
7) Sligeach - 122.565813 (1)
8) Islander - 122.038232 (3)
9) Machu Picchu - 121.339315666667 (3)
10) Born Free - 121.20717104 (5)
11) Princess Royale - 120.7439381 (1)
12) Indecent Proposal - 120.5758586 (5)
13) Correo Expreso - 120.408851133333 (3)
14) My Time To Shine - 118.91777915 (4)
15) Novice - 118.505508333333 (3)
16) Imperiosso - 117.892521625 (8)
17) Personaly Majestic - 117.80442411 (2)
18) Rasta Battlefield - 116.54709718 (5)
19) Bold Star - 116.039188666667 (3)
20) Assurances - 115.670586 (2)

1) Regal Son 1:58.23 .
2) Krazy Sheikh 1:58.34 .
3) Regal Son 1:58.40 .
4) Dynamo 1:58.52 .
5) Regal Son 1:58.66 .
6) Blessed 1:58.77 .
7) Capro Espiatorio 1:58.79 .
8) Find A Way 1:58.86 .
9) Imperiosso 1:58.95
10) Gradient 1:58.98 .
11) Two Thousand 1:59.00 .
12) Duo Power 1:59.01 .
13) Regal Son 1:59.06 .
14) Emily's Song 1:59.23 .
15) Novice 1:59.26 .
16) Nostradame 1:59.27 .
17) Find A Way 1:59.32 .
18) Machu Picchu 1:59.35 .
19) Indecent Proposal 1:59.39 .
20) Imperiosso 1:59.40 .

1) Krazy Sheikh - 142.871132 (1)

2) Montelimar - 135.851662 (1)
3) Islander - 135.4515045 (2)
4) Regal Son - 133.030596833333 (3)
5) PokerInTheSky - 132.531346 (1)
6) Holiday At Mars - 129.871696676667 (3)
7) Bella - 129.385932 (2)
8) Victory Troll - 126.375887 (2)
9) Autharky - 126.124403 (2)
10) Celestial Glaze - 125.0122175 (2)
11) Imperiosso - 124.338605333333 (3)
12) Machu Picchu - 124.320406 (1)
13) Indecent Proposal - 124.2389825 (4)
14) Escaflowne - 124.04723575 (6)
15) Novice - 122.9562595 (2)
16) Smashed - 121.31377749 (7)
17) Pleasant Paris - 120.906851 (2)
18) Princess Royale - 120.7439381 (1)
19) Sligeach - 119.956502775 (2)
20) Gradient - 119.945183 (5)

1) Ride of Revenge 1:32.71
2) Regal Son 1:32.96 .
3) Ride of Revenge 1:33.13 .
4) Sligeach 1:33.22 .
5) Badge 1:33.37 .
6) Priceless Revenge 1:33.49 .
7) Zach Attack 1:33.61 .
8) Possibly Royal 1:33.81
9) Autharky 1:33.86 .
10) Badge 1:33.87 .
11) Regal Son 1:33.92 .
12) Champions Dream 1:33.98 .
13) Montelimar 1:34.01 .
14) Unbridled Troll 1:34.02 .
15) Ton Of Luck 1:34.07 .
16) Zach Attack 1:34.10 .
16) Octane 1:34.10 .
18) Pleasant Paris 1:34.13 .
19) Razer Boomslang 1:34.14 .
20) Smashed 1:34.18 .

1) Bella - 134.332479 (1)
2) PokerInTheSky - 132.531346 (1)
3) Indecent Proposal - 126.8283568 (5)
4) Escaflowne - 125.713902416667 (6)
5) My Time To Shine - 122.914336433333 (6)
6) Princess Royale - 120.7439381 (1)
7) Machu Picchu - 120.339315666667 (3)
8) No More Lies - 119.81935671375 (8)
9) Born Free - 119.736614457143 (7)
10) Celestial Glaze - 117.259974 (1)
11) She's A Prize - 115.162191275 (4)
12) Bold Star - 114.265259736286 (7)
13) Skyline - 113.212674825 (4)
14) Rasta Battlefield - 112.3650362375 (8)
15) Fly Away - 112.26349804 (5)
16) Pleasant Paris - 110.411662 (1)
17) Gold Studded - 109.393814 (2)
18) Exacta - 109.26914382 (5)
19) On The Run - 109.25574872625 (8)
20) WhyIsTheRumGone - 108.762439879143 (7)

1) Born Free 1:46.13 .
2) Born Free 1:46.15 .
3) Troll Drop 1:46.16 .
3) Born Free 1:46.16 .
5) Rasta Battlefield 1:46.21 .
6) Princess Royale 1:46.34 .
7) Skyline 1:46.39 .
8) Expensive Jewels 1:46.47 .
9) Rasta Battlefield 1:46.49 .
10) Bold Star 1:46.60
11) Twisted 1:46.68 .
12) Indecent Proposal 1:46.72 .
13) Twisted 1:46.76 .
14) No More Lies 1:46.77 .
15) Dawing is the Day 1:46.86 .
16) She's A Prize 1:46.88 .
17) Assurances 1:46.94 .
18) Troll Drop 1:46.97 .
19) Road to Zion 1:46.99 .
20) Machu Picchu 1:47.01 .

1) Paint The Roses - 129.5870592 (4)
2) Genuine Belle - 126.586022 (1)
3) Nostradame - 125.175191 (2)
4) Indecent Proposal - 124.8699695 (2)
5) Road to Zion - 124.106355 (1)
6) Sharp Slicker - 122.465511 (1)
7) Dark Delights - 119.873259 (1)
8) PokerInTheSky - 117.5794756 (2)
9) Shadow Keeper - 116.7375486 (5)
10) Tiraspol - 112.819744 (4)
11) She's A Prize - 111.29001044 (5)
12) October Sky - 109.857532 (5)
13) Galactica - 109.160891666667 (3)
14) Doccia Fredda - 109.047708125 (8)
15) Cats - 107.629567 (1)
16) Lightning - 107.299533933333 (3)
17) Princess Royale - 106.679098142857 (7)
18) RememberNinetyNine - 106.446831 (1)
19) Secret Siren - 106.38090056 (5)
20) Risk The Money - 106.305542033333 (6)

1) Indecent Proposal 1:59.14 .
2) Machu Picchu 1:59.26 .
3) Shadow Keeper 1:59.42 .
4) Secret Siren 1:59.43 .
5) October Sky 1:59.45 .
6) Paint The Roses 1:59.61 .
7) Golden Evidence 1:59.71 .
8) Perfecta 1:59.83 .
9) Doccia Fredda 1:59.84 .
10) Machu Picchu 1:59.89 .
11) Doccia Fredda 1:59.91 .
12) Golden Evidence 1:59.98 .
13) Arctic Fox 2:00.05 .
14) Memzeri 2:00.06 .
15) Indecent Proposal 2:00.08 .
16) Radial Pulse 2:00.12 .
17) ClashOfTheTitans 2:00.25 .
17) Princess Royale 2:00.25 .
17) RememberNinetyNine 2:00.25 .
20) Doccia Fredda 2:00.30 .

1) Ride of Revenge - 125.78942834 (5)
2) Holiday At Mars - 121.762954413 (10)
3) Smashed - 120.629976738333 (6)
4) Gold Studded - 120.183184666667 (3)
5) Dusk Till Dawn - 118.825817 (1)
6) Celestial Glaze - 118.276134 (2)
7) Assurances - 116.646166 (1)
8) Robotsnskateboards - 116.622807666667 (3)
9) No More Lies - 116.437557 (1)
10) Perfection - 115.98826035 (6)
11) Dare To Win - 115.974688 (1)
12) Horcrux - 115.20701785 (2)
13) Hellenistic - 112.756978 (2)
14) Pleasant Paris - 112.568196333333 (3)
15) Hepatic Flap - 111.758613033333 (3)
16) Rocket - 111.6293195 (4)
17) Strange Brew - 110.854717 (3)
18) Fly Away - 110.270711 (1)
19) Evasione Totale - 109.204332975 (4)
20) Fields of Marscay - 108.9009571 (1)

1) Holiday At Mars 1:07.77
2) Perfection 1:07.88 .
2) Horcrux 1:07.88 .
4) Yeager 1:07.94 .
4) Smashed 1:07.94 .
6) Holiday At Mars 1:08.03
7) Yeager 1:08.05 .
8) Come Vampire 1:08.10 .
9) Danish Cat 1:08.13 .
10) Duncan 1:08.27 .
11) Hepatic Flap 1:08.31 .
12) Holiday At Mars 1:08.32 .
13) Fields of Marscay 1:08.33 .
14) Holiday At Mars 1:08.34
15) Stowaway 1:08.35 .
16) Ultimate Hustler 1:08.36 .
17) Duncan 1:08.38 .
18) Cielo di Fuoco 1:08.39 .
19) Bold N' Inside 1:08.42 .
20) Forgetwhatyouheard 1:08.43 .

1) Capro Espiatorio - 146.41263482 (5)
2) Sinking Fear - 137.414480342857 (7)
3) Indiscretion - 126.657449425 (4)
4) Final Problem - 124.939374883333 (6)
5) Chicchirichi - 123.445071 (1)
6) Serengeti - 122.772566 (2)
7) Shadow Keeper - 122.140872 (1)
8) Druido Supremo - 121.260533925 (4)
9) Heat Seeker - 120.8149819 (4)
10) Shewinbyten - 117.71942184 (5)
11) Two Thousand - 117.557844 (2)
12) Inside Man - 117.2266495 (2)
13) Timbit - 117.084179 (6)
14) Sharp Slicker - 116.16687925 (4)
15) High Heart - 112.274529825 (4)
16) Princess Royale - 111.705378533333 (3)
17) Camena's Thunder - 111.358737757143 (7)
18) Tony Montana - 111.2199759 (2)
19) October Sky - 110.520872 (1)
20) A View to a Kill - 110.303844428 (5)

1) Capro Espiatorio 2:23.93
2) Reichenbach Falls 2:24.36 .
3) Capro Espiatorio 2:24.38
4) Reichenbach Falls 2:24.53 .
5) Indiscretion 2:24.72 .
6) Capro Espiatorio 2:24.73
7) Princess Royale 2:24.83 .
8) Heat Seeker 2:25.05 .
9) Capro Espiatorio 2:25.07
10) Indiscretion 2:25.27 .
11) Two Thousand 2:25.33 .
12) November Rain 2:25.44 .
13) Capro Espiatorio 2:25.46 .
14) Indiscretion 2:25.50
15) Tony Montana 2:25.59 .
16) Final Problem 2:25.62
17) Roanoke 2:25.68 .
18) Princess Royale 2:25.71 .
19) Sinking Fear 2:25.75 .
20) Heat Seeker 2:25.80 .

1) RememberNinetyNine - 143.948078 (1)
2) School Bus - 134.8289212 (2)
3) Isca's Dawn - 134.190021 (1)
4) Daredevil - 131.011583 (1)
5) A Rab - 129.807379 (7)
6) Royal Money - 127.132466333333 (3)
7) Krazy Sheikh - 126.1835725 (2)
8) Ton Of Luck - 125.5315165 (8)
9) Paint The Roses - 125.227333828571 (7)
10) Two Thousand - 124.754259 (1)
11) Tony Montana - 124.4680898 (5)
12) Nemesis - 124.232525 (2)
13) Autharky - 123.701516666667 (3)
14) Cyberstar - 123.592912 (1)
15) Dare To Know - 123.179132 (1)
16) Hashimotos - 123.077315 (1)
17) Serengeti - 122.870350333333 (3)
18) Machu Picchu - 121.64052875 (2)
19) PokerInTheSky - 120.64415455 (4)
20) Celtic Morn - 119.184087 (7)

1) Arctic Fever 1:32.69
2) A Rab 1:33.49 .
3) Gorgeous George 1:33.52 .
4) PokerInTheSky 1:33.61 .
5) Autharky 1:33.64 .
6) Dare To Know 1:33.65 .
7) Zach Attack 1:33.68 .
8) Paint The Roses 1:33.70 .
9) Paint The Roses 1:33.72 .
9) A Rab 1:33.72 .
11) Paint The Roses 1:33.76 .
12) RememberNinetyNine 1:33.78 .
13) Thunder Mars 1:33.80 .
13) Awesome Crypto 1:33.80 .
15) Restyle 1:33.82 .
15) Dangerous Liasons 1:33.82 .
17) Zach Attack 1:33.86 .
18) Ton Of Luck 1:33.89 .
19) Cashew 1:33.90
19) Ton Of Luck 1:33.90

1) Cyberstar - 123.592912 (1)
2) Nostradame - 122.808236 (1)
3) Isca's Dawn - 118.155916333333 (3)
4) Undertaker - 117.300287833333 (6)
5) Conscription - 114.178197 (1)
6) Count Kane - 113.6201174 (10)
7) Yeager - 112.290500571429 (7)
8) Holiday At Mars - 112.206023 (1)
9) Reining Money - 112.191582 (4)
10) Saint's Patrol - 111.9608235 (2)
11) Montgolfer - 111.770601 (1)
12) Xanthomata - 110.46977625 (4)
13) Medusa's Blood - 110.2672112 (10)
14) Dutty Wine - 109.8050716 (5)
15) A Rab - 109.569906 (2)
16) Keep A Secret - 109.211735 (1)
17) Regardless - 108.631084 (1)
18) Bacardi Ice - 108.6024466 (5)
19) PokerInTheSky - 108.021837 (1)
20) Other Side of Life - 107.44315 (1)

1) Xanthomata 1:14.42 .
2)Seduction 1:14.65 .
3) Fashion Tower 1:14.69 .
4) Hispalis 1:14.94 .
5) Charlot Ville 1:15.09 .
6) Kostya 1:15.19 .
7) Xanthomata 1:15.22 .
8) Horcrux 1:15.33 .
9)Kostya 1:15.40 .
10) Spider Naevi 1:15.53
11) Evacuate 1:15.60 .
12) The Promise 1:15.62 .
13) Fine Wine 1:15.63 .
14) Confederate Tower 1:15.72 .
15) Nonsensical 1:15.82 .
16) Irun 1:15.83 .
17) Critical Mass 1:15.93 .
18) Charming Miss 1:15.94 .
19) Plinth 1:16.10 .
20) Stirling Castle 1:16.11 .

2010-03-31T15:42:00.001-04:00

It's time to update the rankings again...

1) Novice - 137.6630786 (1)

2) Regal Son - 134.863334 (4)
3) Correo Expreso - 132.2101184 (1)
4) No More Lies - 130.5986499 (1)
5) Krazy Sheikh - 130.269139333333 (3)
6) Gradient - 128.42009325 (4)
7) Bold Star - 128.362526 (1)
8) Personaly Majestic - 126.58825 (1)
9) Skyline - 122.809819 (1)
10) Troll Drop - 120.80592855 (2)
11) Indecent Proposal - 120.5758586 (5)
12) Pass the Soup - 118.589782 (1)
13) Assurances - 115.670586 (2)
14) Imperiosso - 115.059352 (5)
15) A Charmer - 115.0578576 (5)
16) Machu Picchu - 114.75313 (2)
17) Born Free - 114.5034565 (2)
18) Rasta Battlefield - 113.8329883 (3)
19) Reflective Smile - 109.95845 (1)
20) Twisted - 109.838644 (3)

1) Krazy Sheikh - 142.871132 (1)

2) Novice - 137.6630786 (1)
3) PokerInTheSky - 132.531346 (1)
4) Regal Son - 131.73265875 (2)
5) Holiday At Mars - 129.659758 (1)
6) Victory Troll - 126.375887 (2)
7) Imperiosso - 124.338605333333 (3)
8) Machu Picchu - 124.320406 (1)
9) Sharp Slicker - 123.764019 (1)
10) Priceless Revenge - 123.667557375 (4)
11) Arctic Spin - 122.720711 (1)
12) No More Lies - 122.701763342 (5)
13) Indecent Proposal - 122.202618 (3)
14) Sligeach - 119.956502775 (2)
15) Smashed - 119.806657 (4)
16) Gradient - 119.507635333333 (3)
17) Skyline - 119.191535 (3)
18) Escaflowne - 119.0710485 (3)
19) She's A Prize - 118.57213 (2)
20) Autharky - 118.491642 (1)

1) PokerInTheSky - 132.531346 (1)

2) No More Lies - 126.7678149275 (4)
3) Indecent Proposal - 125.948427 (4)
4) Sharp Slicker - 123.764019 (1)
5) Skyline - 119.191535 (3)
6) Escaflowne - 119.0710485 (3)
7) She's A Prize - 118.57213 (2)
8) Machu Picchu - 118.25313 (2)
9) Bold Star - 116.1278565 (4)
10) Road to Zion - 115.1039385 (2)
11) Born Free - 114.914044666667 (3)
12) Assurances - 114.733119 (4)
13) My Time To Shine - 113.234197 (1)
14) Troll Drop - 111.748132582 (5)
15) Fly Away - 111.241944 (2)
16) Exacta - 111.236454 (2)
17) Resounding - 110.616488403333 (3)
18) Rasta Battlefield - 110.358546475 (4)
19) Gold Studded - 109.393814 (2)
20) Dark Delights - 107.8472767 (1)

1) Paint The Roses - 127.129796 (1)

2) Genuine Belle - 126.586022 (1)
3) Nostradame - 125.175191 (2)
4) Dark Delights - 119.873259 (1)
5) Tiraspol - 114.803625 (2)
6) Joyride - 111.016385 (3)
7) Bust The Flow - 110.845511 (1)
8) October Sky - 110.520872 (1)
9) Lightning - 110.062825 (1)
10) Flying KD - 108.3211605 (2)
11) Doccia Fredda - 107.762482 (2)
12) Secret Siren - 107.2891685 (2)
13) Corporate Secret - 106.83874 (1)
14) Pussy Cat Doll - 106.6510675 (2)
15) Risk The Money - 106.277586 (3)
16) Memzeri - 105.883033666667 (3)
17) Galactica - 104.829137 (2)
18) Cinderella Liberty - 104.198397 (1)
19) Chandon - 104.169963 (2)
20) Perfecta - 104.06022425 (4)

1) Ride of Revenge - 131.512194 (1)

2) Perfection - 131.508613033333 (3)
3) Held To Ransom - 122.9944324 (1)
4) Arctic Spin - 122.720711 (1)
5) Dusk Till Dawn - 118.825817 (1)
6) Smashed - 118.5656895 (2)
7) Flavio - 117.7174425 (2)
8) No More Lies - 116.437557 (1)
9) Dare To Win - 115.974688 (1)
10) Holiday At Mars - 115.030771183333 (6)
11) Awesome Assassin - 114.7864734 (1)
12) Gold Waltz - 114.6944324 (1)
13) Rocket - 113.9209125 (2)
14) Hellenistic - 112.756978 (2)
15) Gold Studded - 111.789394 (1)
16) Hepatic Flap - 111.758613033333 (3)
17) Strange Brew - 110.854717 (3)
18) Spaceman - 110.7944324 (1)
19) Fly Away - 110.270711 (1)
20) Horizon - 110.000193 (2)

1) Capro Espiatorio - 147.27478555

2) Serengeti - 140.35507 (1)
3) Indiscretion - 139.98491035 (2)
4) Sinking Fear - 139.644816266667 (3)
5) Genuine Belle - 126.586022 (1)
6) Campanilla - 124.21784 (1)
7) Shadow Keeper - 122.140872 (1)
8) Heat Seeker - 120.1452723 (2)
9) Final Problem - 117.754099 (4)
10) Druido Supremo - 116.586529233333 (3)
11) High Heart - 116.2376245 (2)
12) Reichenbach Falls - 115.243384433333 (3)
13) Camena's Thunder - 113.624360075 (4)
14) Princess Royale - 111.705378533333 (3)
15) Melkor - 110.877167 (4)
16) Bust The Flow - 110.845511 (1)
17) October Sky - 110.520872 (1)
18) Inside Man - 110.105421 (1)
19) The Eyes Have It - 109.28844025 (4)
20) November Rain - 108.8368488 (1)

1) Krazy Sheikh - 145.890081 (1)

2) A Rab - 136.8419545 (4)
3) Celtic Morn - 129.4031442 (5)
4) Serengeti - 129.291156 (2)
5) Paint The Roses - 126.6413735 (4)
6) Two Thousand - 124.754259 (1)
7) Ton Of Luck - 123.5570998 (5)
8) Dare To Know - 123.179132 (1)
9) Hashimotos - 123.077315 (1)
10) Machu Picchu - 121.64052875 (2)
11) Islander - 120.552345 (3)
12) Dutty Wine - 119.250370666667 (3)
13) PokerInTheSky - 118.4620335 (2)
14) Nostradame - 118.4403915 (4)
15) Doccia Fredda - 118.157055 (4)
16) Trigun - 117.7817845 (2)
17) Tony Montana - 116.926241 (2)
18) Gorgeous George - 116.759337716667 (6)
19) Thunder Mars - 115.4559771 (3)
20) Road to Zion - 115.4241225 (2)

1) Xanthomata - 125.295363 (1)

2) Duo Power - 114.187462 (1)
3) Sheikh Hosann - 113.230815666667 (3)
4) Saint's Patrol - 113.088512 (1)
5) Undertaker - 112.557469333333 (3)
6) Montgolfer - 111.770601 (1)
7) Lamborghini - 110.662586 (1)
8) Count Kane - 110.620339666667 (6)
9) A Rab - 109.569906 (2)
10) Medusa's Blood - 109.002842333333 (6)
11) Regardless - 108.631084 (1)
12) Fine Wine - 108.191557666667 (3)
13) PokerInTheSky - 108.021837 (1)
14) Bacardi Ice - 107.788585 (2)
15) Coyote Ugly - 107.67816795 (2)
16) Isca's Dawn - 107.497896 (1)
17) Trigun - 107.327315 (1)
18) Mad Max - 107.324085333333 (3)
19) Forgetwhatyouheard - 107.240802666667 (3)
20) Lady Bird - 106.341112 (1)

The Belmont "Controversy"

2010-03-31T09:57:00.001-04:00

“I am very happy with Detonates 2nd place in the Belmont. Not sure I agree with the 11 length victory considering Gradient needed photos to win the first two, but it is what it is I guess.”

“So wait, he was losing with 3-4F left and he managed to win by 11 and crush Two Thousand, who had the lead at that point by 23 lengths?? Did he have a rocket strapped to his a**? Maybe an extra gas tank? And on a heavy track no less.”

These are two comments made on the forum about the Belmont Stakes from Doug of Underworld Stables. Now, I’m not going to use these quotes to bash someone. Besides, with a name like Doug, he’s got to be a good guy. The quotes did inspire me to take a deeper look at the race and do a kind of wrap up. Knowing me, it could get pretty lengthy. We’ll see how it goes.

The Field

Early on last week, when the field was still shaping up, someone said that it should be “an interesting race”. I replied with this, “How is it an interesting race in the slightest? Right now, you have Gradient and a bunch of horses that can't get the distance. That's interesting?” After that point, the field did change some, so let’s take a look at what the final field turned out to be.

Dardo Infuocato – Winless in twelve starts coming in to the Belmont. Tried twelve furlongs once, and ran a 53 PSR. Never ran higher that an 88 PSR at any distance. Not a twelve furlong horse.

Daywatch – Winless in nine starts coming in. Also tried this distance one before, and ran a 58. Never ran higher than a 78 PSR. Not a twelve furlong horse.

Detonate – Three time winner from twelve starts coming in. Never ran twelve furlongs before. Has run a 100 PSR (my sheet rounds up) and several 90+. Talented horse, but not a twelve furlong horse.

Gradient – Winner of six of twelve races, including the first two legs of the Triple Crown, coming in. Never ran at twelve furlongs before, but had won at eleven before, with a 108 PSR. Eight times he had run 100+ PSR’s, with a career high of 108. Class of the field and twelve is well within his wheelhouse. Could see him eventually doing well at even longer.

Majestic Dancer – Winless in fourteen starts coming in. Had three races at twelve furlongs previously, all on turf, with a high PSR of 74. Career high PSR is 91 and all the rest of them are 74 and lower. Not a twelve furlong horse.

Neon Deion – Winless in seven starts coming in. Never ran twelve furlongs before. Never ran better than an 87 PSR, only one other above 80. Not a twelve furlong horse.

PokerInTheSky – Winner of six of thirteen starts coming in. Ran at twelve furlongs on turf in previous two starts with PSR’s of 90 and 92. Career high PSR of 110 came in a win at twelve and a half furlongs on turf. One other 100+ in her career. Personally, I don’t think she’s a twelve furlong horse. She can run decently at the distance (don’t let the 110 at 12.5 fool you, that’s one of those distances where the PSR’s are a bit inflated), and can be competitive with other fillies at the distance…but not colts, especially good ones.

Spite – Winless in six starts coming in. Ran at twelve furlongs on turf in her previous start. Got a 66 PSR and that’s her career high. Not a twelve furlong horse.

Triton – Two wins from twelve starts coming in. Never ran twelve furlongs before. Three total PSR’s of 100+, with a high of 110. Talented horse under ten furlongs. Not a twelve furlong horse.

Two Thousand – Three wins from eleven starts coming in. Never ran at twelve furlongs. Had one start at twelve and a half on the turf and ran a 93. Six career 100+ PSR’s with a high of 114. Very talented horse, but twelve furlongs is probably a bit outside his range. Has the talent to possibly stretch that far though. Also, obviously doesn’t do well on short rest with two previous clunkers on short rest.

Vishous – Winless in seven starts coming in. Never ran twelve furlongs before. Career high PSR of 93. Not a twelve furlong horse.

So, let’s summarize what the filed looked like. Six of the eleven runners were maidens. Eight of the eleven are definitely not twelve furlong horses. One gets a maybe…against fillies. Another gets a maybe to stretch that far. The only definite was Gradient. Ultimately, the field boiled right down to what I said originally…” Right now, you have Gradient and a bunch of horses that can't get the distance.”

The Track

The track variant for the race was 10.80. That’s the fourteenth highest variant for a dirt track for the year to date. There have been 297 dirt races run on the year, so this track was in the bottom 5% for the year.

How did the field “like the track”? Of the eleven runners, none were rated as “Yes!” or “No!”. Six of the runners came in as “Yes” (Detonate, Dardo Infuocato, Spite, Daywatch, Two Thousand, and Vishous). Two of the runners rated as “OK” (Majestic Dancer and Triton). Three of the runners rated as “No” (PokerInTheSky, Gradient, and Neon Deion).

The Race

The two quotes I used at the start of this article were taking issue with how the race unfolded and the distance between horses. So, let’s take a look at just how the race unfolded.

One furlong in, and this is how they stacked up.

1. Two Thousand - running at a “4” effort level.
2. Triton – ½ length back, running at “3”.
3. Gradient – 1 back, running at “3”.
4. Vishous – 1 ¼ back, “1”.
5. Neon Deion – 1 ½, “1”.
6. PokerInTheSky – 1 ½, “2”.
7. Detonate – 2 ½, “2”
8. Dardo Infuocato – 3 ½, “1”.
9. Spite – 3 ¾, “2”.
10. Daywatch – 5 ½, “1”.
11. Majestic Dancer – 5 ½, “1”.

Two furlongs in.

1. Two Thousand – “4”.
2. Triton – 1 ½, “3”.
3. Vishous – 4 ¾, “2”.
4. Gradient – 4 ¾, “2”.
5. PokerInTheSky – 5, “2”.
6. Neon Deion – 6 ½, “2”.
7. Detonate – 7, “2”.
8. Dardo Infuocato – 8, “1”.
9. Daywatch – 9 ½, “2”.
10. Spite – 9 ½, “2”.
11. Majestic Dancer – 11, “1”.

Three furlongs in.

1. Two Thousand – “3”.
2. Triton – 2, “3”.
3. Vishous – 6, “3”.
4. PokerInTheSky – 6 ½, “2”.
5. Neon Deion – 7 ½, “2”.
6. Gradient – 8, “2”.
7. Detonate – 11, “2”.
8. Daywatch – 12, “2”.
9. Dardo Infuocato – 12, “2”.
10. Spite – 13, “2”.
11. Majestic Dancer – 14, “2”.

Four furlongs in.

1. Two Thousand – “4”.
2. Triton – 2, “3”.
3. Vishous – 7 ½, “2”.
4. PokerInTheSky – 8, “2”.
5. Neon Deion – 9, “2”.
6. Gradient – 11, “2”.
7. Detonate – 12, “2”.
8. Daywatch – 13, “2”.
9. Dardo Infuocato – 14, “2”.
10. Spite – 16, “2”.
11. Majestic Dancer – 17, “2”.

Five furlongs in.

1. Two Thousand – “4”.
2. Triton – 2, “3”.
3. Vishous – 8 ½, “2”.
4. PokerInTheSky – 9, “2”.
5. Neon Deion – 11, “2”.
6. Gradient – 12, “2”.
7. Detonate – 13, “2”.
8. Daywatch – 14, “2”.
9. Dardo Infuocato – 15, “2”.
10. Spite – 17, “2”.
11. Majestic Dancer – 18, “2”.

Six furlongs in.

1. Two Thousand – “3”.
2. Triton – 2, “3”.
3. Vishous – 10, “2”.
4. PokerInTheSky – 10, “2”.
5. Detonate – 12, “2”.
6. Gradient – 13, “2”.
7. Neon Deion – 14, “2”.
8. Daywatch – 15, “2”.
9. Dardo Infuocato – 17, “2”.
10. Spite – 18, “2”.
11. Majestic Dancer – 21, “2”.

Seven furlongs in.

1. Two Thousand – “3”.
2. Triton – 2, “3”.
3. Detonate – 11, “2”.
4. Vishous – 11, “2”.
5. PokerInTheSky – 11, “2”.
6. Gradient – 12, “2”.
7. Daywatch – 15, “2”.
8. Dardo Infocato – 17, “3”.
9. Neon Deion – 17, “2”.
10. Spite – 18, “2”.
11. Majestic Dancer – 21, “3”.

Eight furlongs in.

1. Two Thousand – “3”.
2. Triton – 2, “3”.
3. Detonate – 9 ½, “2”.
4. Gradient – 10, “2”.
5. Vishous – 11, “2”.
6. PokerInTheSky – 12, “2”.
7. Dardo Infuocato – 14, “2”.
8. Daywatch – 15, “2”.
9. Spite – 18, “2”.
10. Majestic Dancer – 19, “3”.
11. Neon Deion – 20, “2”.

Nine furlongs in.

1. Two Thousand – “3”.
2. Triton – 2 ½, “3”.
3. Detonate – 6 ½, “3”.
4. Gradient – 6 ½, “2”.
5. Vishous – 9 ½, “3”.
6. PokerInTheSky – 11, “3”.
7. Dardo Infuocato – 11, “3”.
8. Daywatch – 13, “3”.
9. Spite – 16, “3”.
10. Majestic Dancer – 18, “3”.
11. Neon Deion – 21, “3”.

Ten furlongs in.

1. Two Thousand – “4”.
2. Detonate – 1 ¼, “4”.
3. Gradient – 2 ¼, “3”.
4. Triton – 4, “4”.
5. Dardo Infuocato – 8, “4”.
6. Vishous – 8 ½, “4”.
7. PokerInTheSky – 10, “4”.
8. Daywatch – 11, “4”.
9. Spite – 15, “4”.
10. Majestic Dancer – 16, “4”.
11. Neon Deion – 24, “4”.

Eleven furlongs in.

1. Gradient – “2”.
2. Detonate – 1 ¼, “5”.
3. Two Thousand – 4 ¾, “5”.
4. Dardo Infuocato – 8 ½, “5”.
5. Triton – 11, “5”.
6. Vishous – 13, “5”.
7. Daywatch – 15, “5”.
8. PokerInTheSky – 16, “5”.
9. Spite – 18, “5”.
10. Majestic Dancer – 19, “5”.
11. Neon Deion – 34, “5”.

Finish.

1. Gradient
2. Detonate – 11
3. Dardo Infuocato – 22
4. Two Thousand – 23
5. Daywatch – 28
6. Spite – 33
7. Triton – 36
8. Majestic Dancer – 36
9. PokerInTheSky – 42
10. Vishous – 42
11. Neon Deion – 86

The Splits

:23.15, :46.67, 1:10.92, 1:36.64, 2:02.92, 2:28.91 (81 PSR)

Gradient - :24.08, :24.36, :24.64, :24.98, :25.12, :25.73
Detonate - :24.53, :24.15, :24.18, :25.19, :24.99, :27.69
Dardo Infuocato - :24.68, :24.33, :24.76, :24.96, :25.45, :28.33
Two Thousand - :23.16, :23.52, :24.25, :25.42, :26.58, :29.79
Daywatch - :24.86, :23.98, :24.65, :25.54, :25.89, :28.69
Spite - :24.90, :24.37, :24.69, :25.63, :25.91, :28.94
Triton - :23.44, :23.56, :24.26, :25.44, :27.06, :31.19
Majestic Dancer - :25.17, :24.28, :25.03, :25.26, :26.07, :29.14
PokerInTheSky - :24.04, :23.95, :24.66, :25.78, :26.38, :31.10
Vishous - :23.99, :23.91, :24.74, :25.73, :26.03, :31.59
Neon Deion - :24.22, :24.01, :25.16, :26.56, :27.66, :35.66

First split

1. Two Thousand - :23.16
2. Triton - :23.44
3. Vishous - :23.99
4. PokerInTheSky - :24.04
5. Gradient - :24.08
6. Neon Deion - :24.22
7. Detonate - :24.53
8. Dardo Infuocato - :24.68
9. Daywatch - :24.86
10. Spite - :24.90
11. Majestic Dancer - :25.17

Second split

1. Two Thousand - :23.52
2. Triton - :23.56
3. Vishous - :23.91
4. PokerInTheSky - :23.95
5. Daywatch - :23.98
6. Neon Deion - :24.01
7. Detonate - :24.15
8. Majestic Dancer - :24.28
9. Dardo Infuocato - :24.33
10. Gradient - :24.36
11. Spite - :24.37

Third split

1. Detonate - :24.18
2. Two Thousand - :24.25
3. Triton - :24.26
4. Gradient - :24.64
5. Daywatch - :24.65
6. PokerInTheSky - :24.66
7. Spite - :24.69
8. Vishous - :24.74
9. Dardo Infuocato - :24.76
10. Majestic Dancer - :25.03
11. Neon Deion - :25.16

Fourth split

1. Dardo Infuocato - :24.96
2. Gradient - :24.98
3. Detonate - :25.19
4. Majestic Dancer - :25.26
5. Two Thousand - :25.42
6. Triton - :25.44
7. Daywatch - :25.54
8. Spite - :25.63
9. Vishous - :25.73
10. PokerInTheSky - :25.78
11. Neon Deion - :26.56

Fifth split

1. Detonate - :24.99
2. Gradient - :25.12
3. Dardo Infuocato - :25.45
4. Daywatch - :25.89
5. Spite - :25.91
6. Vishous - :26.03
7. Majestic Dancer - :26.07
8. PokerInTheSky - :26.38
9. Two Thousand - :26.58
10. Triton - :27.06
11. Neon Deion - :27.66

Sixth split

1. Gradient - :25.73
2. Detonate - :27.69
3. Dardo Infuocato - :28.33
4. Daywatch - :28.69
5. Spite - :28.94
6. Majestic Dancer - :29.14
7. Two Thousand - :29.79
8. PokerInTheSky - :31.10
9. Triton - :31.19
10. Vishous - :31.59
11. Neon Deion - :35.66

So, what happened?

As seen from the quotes that we started with, we have a few in the PF community that are incredulous over Gradient’s big win. Let’s see if any of this makes sense.

First off, going into the race, there was exactly one horse in the field that looked like a horse that could handle twelve furlongs easily, Gradient. Coming out of the race, the list looks to be exactly one horse long still.

Two Thousand obviously wants nothing to do with short rest. This is now three times this year that he’s been wheeled back quickly, and three times now he’s laid a giant egg.

Two Thousand ran this race like he was entered as the rabbit. :23.15, :46.67, 1:10.92 for the first three splits, for no reason at all. Besides Triton, who went with him, no one else was running at all early on. Besides the first two horses, the rest of the field was at an effort level of “2” for at least the first half of the race. Two Thousand spent much of the first ten furlongs alternating between “3” and “4”, with a majority of the time being spent at “4”.

Two Thousand (Triton as well) was done at the mile mark. It wasn’t just Gradient that made up ground on him; it was the whole field (save for Neon Deion who was done after about five furlongs).

Except for the ones that were done earlier, the last two furlongs did in the whole field (except for Gradient). They all basically walked home. This takes us back to what I said before the race ever happened…” Right now, you have Gradient and a bunch of horses that can't get the distance.”

Gradient didn’t really do anything special in making up that ground and eventually pulling away. He just ran a steady race, while the rest of the field eventually had the distance catch up to them. The only reason that his last split dropped so much from the previous five is that he had no reason to run in the stretch, he had put them all away by then. Once they got to the top of the lane, Gradient kicked it into high gear for just long enough to take the lead, and then took it easy the rest of the way in.

So, Two Thousand losing that big lead isn’t all that surprising. Rabbits lose big leads all the time. They go as hard as they can for as long as they can, then give way. Which is exactly how Two Thousand ran the race. Gradient winning going away shouldn’t be a shock either; he was the only horse in the race able to get that distance. A horse can open up a lot of ground on a field that is walking home.

In conclusion, we saw exactly what we should have expected to see; a really good horse winning easily over a less than stellar field.

2010-03-20T05:19:00.001-04:00

A few weeks have gone by since the initial posting of the BC rankings, so it's time for the updated standings. I've decided to post all the rankings within one post, so as not to push too much off of the front page.

1) Novice - 137.6630786 (1)

2) Regal Son - 134.863334 (4)
3) Correo Expreso - 132.2101184 (1)
4) No More Lies - 130.5986499 (1)
5) Krazy Sheikh - 130.269139333333 (3)
6) Assurances - 129.3256031 (1)
7) Bold Star - 128.362526 (1)
8) Gradient - 124.264264666667 (3)
9) Tower of Power - 123.72441 (1)
10) Skyline - 122.809819 (1)
11) Troll Drop - 120.80592855 (2)
12) Pass the Soup - 118.589782 (1)
13) Indecent Proposal - 117.39714675 (4)
14) Born Free - 116.086254 (1)
15) Machu Picchu - 114.75313 (2)
16) Two Thousand - 113.800701 (1)
17) Imperiosso - 112.50229525 (4)
18) A Charmer - 112.4031755 (4)
19) Rasta Battlefield - 112.241698 (2)
20) Living Legacy - 111.306432 (1)

1) Novice - 137.6630786 (1)

2) PokerInTheSky - 132.531346 (1)
3) Escaflowne - 130.439735 (2)
4) Priceless Revenge - 129.912184666667 (3)
5) Victory Troll - 126.375887 (2)
6) Perfection - 124.437441 (2)
7) Imperiosso - 124.338605333333 (3)
8) Sharp Slicker - 123.764019 (1)
9) Allez Paris - 80.6107655 (2)
10) Arctic Spin - 122.720711 (1)
11) Gradient - 119.507635333333 (3)
12) No More Lies - 119.242828725 (4)
13) Skyline - 119.191535 (3)
14) She's A Prize - 118.57213 (2)
15) Autharky - 118.491642 (1)
16) Hellenistic - 117.778545 (1)
17) Smashed - 117.416684666667 (3)
18) First Impression - 117.218419 (1)
19) WhyIsTheRumGone - 116.868374333333 (3)
20) Indecent Proposal - 116.658574 (2)

1) PokerInTheSky - 132.531346 (1)

2) Escaflowne - 130.439735 (2)
3) Road to Zion - 124.031291 (1)
4) Sharp Slicker - 123.764019 (1)
5) No More Lies - 123.511252633333 (3)
6) Fly Away - 121.948742 (1)
7) Indecent Proposal - 120.167667333333 (3)
8) Skyline - 119.191535 (3)
9) Assurances - 118.972302366667 (3)
10) She's A Prize - 118.57213 (2)
11) Machu Picchu - 118.25313 (2)
12) WhyIsTheRumGone - 116.868374333333 (3)
13) Bold Star - 116.1278565 (4)
14) Born Free - 115.9107375 (2)
15) Troll Drop - 114.600790275 (4)
16) Valley Doll - 112.8195354 (4)
17) On The Run - 110.440628333333 (3)
18) Goin'To The Chapel - 110.3963429 (1)
19) Gold Studded - 109.393814 (2)
20) Resounding - 108.2559817 (2)

1) Paint The Roses - 127.129796 (1)

2) Tiraspol - 124.373149 (1)
3) Shadow Keeper - 123.586377333333 (3)
4) Dark Delights - 119.873259 (1)
5) Nostradame - 118.874724 (1)
6) Joyride - 117.497527 (2)
7) October Sky - 110.520872 (1)
8) Galactica - 110.11202 (1)
9) Lightning - 110.062825 (1)
10) Flying KD - 108.3211605 (2)
11) Arctic Fox - 108.0523185 (2)
12) Secret Siren - 107.2891685 (2)
13) Pussy Cat Doll - 106.6510675 (2)
14) Risk The Money - 106.277586 (3)
15) ClashOfTheTitans - 105.373904 (1)
16) Perfecta - 104.565598666667 (3)
17) Cinderella Liberty - 104.198397 (1)
18) Memzeri - 103.7575 (2)
19) She's A Prize - 103.735247 (2)
20) Serephina - 103.42526175 (2)

1) Krazy Sheikh - 145.890081 (1)

2) A Rab - 134.204756 (3)
3) Paint The Roses - 133.883981333333 (3)
4) Serengeti - 129.291156 (2)
5) Forgetwhatyouheard - 129.147374 (1)
6) Celtic Morn - 126.19172025 (4)
7) Islander - 124.9517425 (2)
8) Hashimotos - 123.077315 (1)
9) For You to Envy - 122.258583 (1)
10) Dutty Wine - 122.0469295 (2)
11) Machu Picchu - 121.64052875 (2)
12) Thunder Mars - 121.17439965 (2)
13) Ton Of Luck - 120.85542625 (4)
14) Sunny Outlook - 118.636976 (1)
15) PokerInTheSky - 118.4620335 (2)
16) Doccia Fredda - 118.157055 (4)
17) Rolling Rock - 117.704918 (2)
18) Road to Zion - 115.4241225 (2)
19) Gorgeous George - 114.86838958 (5)
20) October Sky - 114.6808125 (2)

1) Flavio - 131.694933 (1)

2) Ride of Revenge - 131.512194 (1)
3) Perfection - 131.508613033333 (3)
4) Arctic Spin - 122.720711 (1)
5) No More Lies - 116.437557 (1)
6) Dare To Win - 115.974688 (1)
7) Awesome Assassin - 114.7864734 (1)
8) Rocket - 113.9209125 (2)
9) Flirt With Fame - 113.22603 (1)
10) Horizon - 113.047393 (1)
11) Hellenistic - 112.756978 (2)
12) Holiday At Mars - 112.170397525 (4)
13) Gold Studded - 111.789394 (1)
14) Hepatic Flap - 111.758613033333 (3)
15) Strange Brew - 110.854717 (3)
16) Fly Away - 110.270711 (1)
17) Smashed - 110.154805 (1)
18) Typical Conflict - 108.938323 (1)
19) Yeager - 108.9338257 (3)
20) Fields of Marscay - 108.9009571 (1)

1) High Heart - 147.577599 (1)

2) Capro Espiatorio - 147.27478555 (2)
3) Indiscretion - 139.1099915 (1)
4) Reichenbach Falls - 128.88915665 (2)
5) Timbit - 123.633694 (2)
6) Shadow Keeper - 122.140872 (1)
7) Druido Supremo - 121.48987925 (2)
8) Heat Seeker - 120.1452723 (2)
9) Rich N' Famous - 119.171146 (1)
10) Shewinbyten - 118.665055 (2)
11) Final Problem - 117.754099 (4)
12) Blue Light - 114.159767 (1)
13) Melkor - 113.916681666667 (3)
14) Tiraspol - 112.136483333333 (3)
15) Princess Royale - 111.705378533333 (3)
16) Tony Montana - 111.2199759 (2)
17) Camena's Thunder - 110.7352001 (3)
18) October Sky - 110.520872 (1)
19) Inside Man - 110.105421 (1)
20) November Rain - 108.8368488 (1)

1) Xanthomata - 125.295363 (1)

2) Forgetwhatyouheard - 119.6825775 (2)
3) Fine Wine - 116.98371 (2)
4) Danish Cat - 116.362926 (1)
5) Duo Power - 114.187462 (1)
6) Sheikh Hosann - 113.230815666667 (3)
7) Saint's Patrol - 113.088512 (1)
8) Montgolfer - 111.770601 (1)
9) Mad Max - 111.4248935 (2)
10) Coyote Ugly - 111.421431 (1)
11) Lamborghini - 110.662586 (1)
12) Count Kane - 110.5332922 (5)
13) Van Meter - 110.303778 (2)
14) A Rab - 109.569906 (2)
15) Regardless - 108.631084 (1)
16) Undertaker - 108.3825775 (2)
17) Medusa's Blood - 108.34192675 (4)
18) PokerInTheSky - 108.021837 (1)
19) Bacardi Ice - 107.788585 (2)
20) Trigun - 107.327315 (1)

2010-03-06T23:51:00.001-05:00

These are the top 20 horses for the BC F&M Turf. All turf races from 9 to 11 furlongs are included. There are 75 horses in the rankings year to date.

Paint The Roses - 127.130 (1 race)
Joyride - 127.054 (1)
Tiraspol - 124.373 (1)
Shadow Keeper - 124.309 (2)
Dark Delights - 119.873 (1)
Nostradame - 118.875 (1)
Memzeri - 112.069 (1)
Galactica - 110.112 (1)
Lightning - 110.063 (1)
Arctic Fox - 108.052 (2)
Secret Siren - 107.289 (2)
Web of Silence - 107.154 (1)
Pussy Cat Doll - 106.651 (2)
Serephina - 106.510 (1)
Risk The Money - 105.901 (2)
ClashOfTheTitans - 105.374 (1)
Perfecta - 104.288 (2)
Cinderella Liberty - 104.198 (1)
She's A Prize - 103.735 (1)
Sacagawea - 103.091 (1)

2010-03-06T23:35:00.000-05:00

These are the top 20 horses for the BC Distaff. All dirt races from 8 to 10 furlongs are included. There are 204 horses in the rankings year to date.

PokerInTheSky - 132.531 (1 race)
Escaflowne - 130.440 (2)
Smashed - 124.827 (1)
Assurances - 124.080 (2)
Sharp Slicker - 123.764 (1)
No More Lies - 123.511 (3)
Fly Away - 121.949 (1)
Skyline - 119.192 (3)
She's A Prize - 118.572 (2)
Machu Picchu - 118.253 (2)
Indecent Proposal - 117.186 (1)
WhyIsTheRumGone - 116.868 (3)
Born Free - 115.911 (2)
Valley Doll - 114.041 (3)
Troll Drop - 112.849 (3)
Aeroflot - 112.611 (2)
Brave Notice - 111.889 (2)
On The Run - 110.441 (3)
Bold Star - 109.716 (3)
Gold Studded - 109.394 (2)

2010-03-06T23:17:00.000-05:00

These are the top 20 horses for the BC Turf. All turf races from 11 to 13 furlongs are included. There are 125 horses in the rankings year to date.

High Heart - 147.578 (1 race)
Capro Espiatorio - 147.275 (2)
Sinking Fear - 142.403 (1)
Druido Supremo - 135.360 (1)
PokerInTheSky - 134.260 (1)
Revolving Victory - 129.234 (2)
Reichenbach Falls - 128.889 (2)
Storm Bell - 124.569 (1)
Timbit - 123.634 (2)
Rightwing - 120.978 (1)
Final Problem - 119.205 (2)
Rich N' Famous - 119.171 (1)
Sharp Slicker - 118.510 (1)
Heat Seeker - 117.567 (1)
Blue Light - 114.160 (1)
Melkor - 113.917 (3)
Tiraspol - 112.136 (3)
Faldo - 111.666 (4)
Tony Montana - 111.220 (2)
Inside Man - 110.105 (1)

2010-03-06T22:57:00.000-05:00

These are the top 20 horses for the BC Classic. All dirt races from 9 to 11 furlongs are included. There are 291 horses in the rankings year to date.

Krazy Sheikh - 144.253 (2 races)
Novice - 137.663 (1)
Victory Troll - 137.521 (1)
Regal Son - 132.241 (3)
Correo Expreso - 132.210 (1)
No More Lies - 130.599 (1)
Assurances - 129.326 (1)
Tower of Power - 123.724 (1)
Skyline - 122.810 (1)
Troll Drop - 120.806 (2)
Undaunted - 120.371 (1)
Royal Money - 119.521 (1)
Pass the Soup - 118.590 (1)
Indecent Proposal - 118.136 (2)
Imperiosso - 117.669 (3)
Gradient - 117.396 (2)
No Limitations - 117.343 (1)
Born Free - 116.086 (1)
Machu Picchu - 114.753 (2)
Rasta Battlefield - 112.242 (2)

2010-03-06T22:44:00.000-05:00

These are the top 20 horses for the BC Mile. All turf races from 7 to 9 furlongs are included. There are 360 horses in the rankngs year to date.

Krazy Sheikh - 145.890 (1 race)
Paint The Roses - 133.884 (3)
A Rab - 130.560 (2)
Forgetwhatyouheard - 129.147 (1)
Thunder Mars - 129.021 (1)
Islander - 124.952 (2)
Two Thousand - 124.754 (1)
Celtic Morn - 123.360 (3)
Hashimotos - 123.077 (1)
For You to Envy - 122.259 (1)
Dutty Wine - 122.047 (2)
Nostradame - 121.268 (2)
Charming Miss - 121.065 (1)
Presidential Ball - 120.894 (2)
Serengeti - 120.445 (1)
Doccia Fredda - 119.258 (3)
Sunny Outlook - 118.637 (1)
PokerInTheSky - 118.462 (2)
Ton Of Luck - 116.694 (3)
Gorgeous George - 116.567 (3)

2010-03-06T22:23:00.000-05:00

These are the top 20 horses for the BC Dirt Mile. All dirt races from 7 to 9 furlongs are included. There are 442 horses in the rankings year to date.

Krazy Sheikh - 142.871 (1 race)
Novice - 137.663 (1)
Priceless Revenge - 134.619 (2)
Smashed - 134.198 (2)
PokerInTheSky - 132.531 (1)
Escaflowne - 130.440 (2)
Holiay At Mars - 129.660 (1)
Victory Troll - 126.376 (2)
Imperiosso - 124.339 (3)
Machu Picchu - 124.320 (1)
Sharp Slicker - 123.764 (1)
Fly Away - 121.949 (1)
Sligeach - 119.957 (2)
Gradient - 119.508 (3)
No More Lies - 119.243 (4)
Skyline - 119.192 (3)
Assurances - 119.080 (2)
Your Majesty - 119.077 (1)
She's A Prize - 118.572 (2)
Autharky - 118.492 (1)

2010-03-06T22:05:00.000-05:00

These are the top 20 horses for the BC Turf Sprint (6.5 furlongs). All turf races from 5.5 to 7.5 furlongs are included. There are 294 horses in the rankings year to date.

Xanthomata - 125.295 (1 race)
Yeager - 122.055 (1)
Forgetwhatyouheard - 119.683 (2)
Fine Wine - 116.984 (2)
Danish Cat - 116.363 (1)
Duo Power - 114.187 (1)
Saint's Patrol - 113.089 (1)
Count Kane - 112.716 (4)
Sheikh Hosann - 112.645 (2)
Montgolfer - 111.771 (1)
Mad Max - 111.425 (2)
Lamborghini - 110.663 (1)
Van Meter - 110.304 (2)
Trump Mahal - 110.269 (1)
Kayson - 110.025 (1)
Kostya - 109.625 (3)
A Rab - 109.570 (2)
Regardless - 108.631 (1)
Medusa's Blood - 108.598 (3)
Undertaker - 108.383 (2)

2010-03-05T15:36:00.003-05:00

It’s now time to unveil what you’ve all been waiting for. Ummm…well, at least what Chelsey has been waiting for. Before I go ahead and post the list, I might as well give them a bit of an introduction.

A little less than a month ago, I did the first of what I planned to be many top 10 lists. Other than whittling down the list of 3YO colts by the top PSR’s on the year, there was nothing mathematical about the list. It was purely subjective. There was nothing wrong with the list; I was actually quite pleased with how some of the colts performed after I posted the list. But, there were some problems with that type of list…at least for me.

One problem is that I don’t watch every race. For the most part, I only watch the races that my horses are entered in. Occasionally, I’ll watch another race if a particular horse that I like to follow is entered. Or, I’ll watch a race at the request of another player. Sometimes, I’ll watch various races in the course of doing some research. For the most part though, I only watch mine…which keeps me busy enough as it is.

Another problem I thought about after doing my subjective list (and before I dove into other lists) was the fact that most other horses out there aren’t campaigned in the way that I would do it. This isn’t meant as a knock on the way others play the game, it just occurred to me that what I thought about a particular horse and the way I ranked it could look pretty stupid or way off base if the actual owner felt differently about said horse and ran it in a completely different way that what I was basing my subjective ranking on.

So, like I said, I was thinking about this while at work, and decided that I just needed to get back to “my thing”. You know; a purely mathematical view. Bring back the stats! The thing I really needed to work out was just what did I want to measure. Doing a stats based ranking could be very simple, like straight average PSR’s. I’ve done that in the past. I’d imagine that some people enjoyed them. They are interesting to look at. Being as simple as they were, they didn’t really do much as far as a ranking of horses. You could see which horses were consistently putting up good PSR’s, but other than that, was it really saying much about how certain horses compared with each other?.

Almost four (real) years ago, I came up with a ridiculously complicated spreadsheet to rank horses. It incorporated PSR’s, on the board finishes, grade of races, purses of races, bonuses for records, and the number of races ran. Each individual race was basically given a “strength factor”, which were in constant flux as horses went on to do better (or worse) things. On my old machine, it was pretty cumbersome, but it did what I wanted it to do. The key words of the prior sentence are “on my old machine”. Unfortunately, that particular spreadsheet is gone forever (along with the formulas).

While, I really liked that spreadsheet and what it did; I wanted to do it a little different this time. I guess a lot of the basic principles are the same; I just thought it would be better if horses were ranked among their peers. It might be fun to see how Dirt Sprinter X ranks in a list compared to Turf Stayer Y and Jack Of All Trades Z, but I figured it would be more informative to see how Dirt Sprinter X ranks against Dirt Sprinter Y and Dirt Sprinter Z.

The formulas in this new spreadsheet aren’t quite on the level of the super sheet from a few years ago, but I’d like to think that it’s still worthwhile. Like I said, it’s basically measuring the same thing (or at least trying to) only it’s a bit more streamlined. The new sheet is still taking into account how fast the horses run, what level they run at and how well they do. The purses and records are no longer factored in, but a bonus has been added for doing well at the targeted distance (with bonuses based on race level).

The targeted distance is a new wrinkle for this sheet. Like I said, I wanted to do more of an” apples to apples” comparison this time. Doing a sheet for every single distance/surface combination seemed like way too much though. I decided to take what I would imagine quite a few stables would consider to be the most important races, the Breeders Cup races, on the schedule and come with sheets for those races. A few things this does, I hope. For one thing, a lot of the different distance/surface combinations will be covered in this method. Also, come Breeders Cup time, we always have the forum topics about the unrealistic entries. I’m not saying that these rankings will stop that, but it will be fun to see how the rankings and the actual race cards end up looking in comparison.

A few more notes about the sheets/rankings before we actually get to them. For each BC race, I will set up a sheet. Instead of just taking that particular distance, I take a range of distances for that race. For example, for the BC Sprint sheet, I’m using every dirt race from 5 to 7 furlongs. For the BC Turf, it will be every turf race from 11 to 13 furlongs. All of the sheets will be based on races from one furlong below the targeted distance and one furlong above it. Some may have an issue with the range, but what can I say, it’s what I came up with. I seriously doubt that I will do sheets for the Juvenile races. There just won’t be that many races run in the distance ranges to get enough data for a good ranking. We shall see though.

Lots of horses will be ranked. For the first version of the BC Sprint list, 368 horses are ranked. Obviously, I’m not going to post the whole list. If you want to know where a particular horse sits on the list, just ask. In the future, I may see about the viability of posting a sheet on here so the entire lists can be viewed.

SSS. Small sample size warning. You may be shocked by how high/low a particular horse is ranked. Just remember, it’s early. Let’s see how things shake out after there is more data to go on before we start calling me an idiot.

Ok, I think I covered everything that I wanted to. Thanks for sticking it out this long if you’re still reading. And, sorry to Chelsey for making you wait this long!

BC Sprint Division

1. Flavio – 131.695 (1 race)
2. Ride of Revenge – 131.512 (1)
3. Perfection – 129.139 (2)
4. Strange Brew – 119.061 (2)
5. Rocket – 118.945 (1)
6. No More Lies – 116.438 (1)
7. Flirt With Fame – 113.226 (1)
8. Holiday At Mars – 112.170 (4)
9. Gold Studded – 111.789 (1)
10. Smashed – 110.155 (1)
11. Bold N’ Inside – 109.758 (3)
12. Typical Conflict – 108.938 (1)
13. Yeager – 108.934 (3)
14. Fields of Marscay – 108.901 (1)
15. Possibly Royal – 108.788 (1)
16. Hot Sauce – 108.522 (3)
17. Hepatic Flap – 108.389 (2)
18. Bubbles – 108.242 (1)
19. Sunny Outlook – 108.111 (2)
20. First Impression – 108.053 (2)

2010-03-02T10:21:00.000-05:00

Last night at work, I fleshed out an idea for rankings of the best horses for the current year in Photo Finish. I decided to make a different spreadsheet for each Breeders Cup race in the fall. It took a little bit of finagling, but I just got the first one working. Unlike my post of a few weeks ago, which was mostly subjestive, these rankings will be purely mathematical. So, get ready to be shocked, amazed, bewildered, pleased, or maybe just plain pissed off. The top 20 dirt sprinters will be coming at some point this week!

An update...

2010-02-26T20:57:00.000-05:00

There’s good news and (potentially) bad news on the geezer front. Let’s start with the good though…

The streak continues! Since the last update, the brigade cashed in five more races. For the season, their combined record now stands at 14: 3-4-4-3, $568,750. Their average PSR is 97.44, with only one sub-90 PSR in the fourteen starts. The most recent geezer races:

• 7YO mare, Sadlers Grace, finished second by a whisper (half head) in her season debut in the De La Rose Handicap. She posted a 93 PSR.
• Flavio followed up his win in his first start of the year with a third place finish in the Westchester Handicap. He posted a 93 PSR.
• Royal Kiwi’s tough luck continues as he ran a 108 PSR, but finished third in the El Rincon Handicap. He’s now averaging 104.53 on the year…without a win.
• The Big O rebounded a bit in his latest start with a second place finish (by three-quarters of a length) in The Hilton Garden Inn Sprint. His PSR was 90.
• Wild Wonder did what he normally does…cash. He ran a 90 and finished fourth despite being the sixth pick in the Maker’s Mark Mile.

Now, for the bad news…potentially. This week might be the end of the streak. 7YO, Majestic Mannerism, goes in the Atherton Handicap, and it’s going to take a big effort to cash. For one, it’s a ten horse field, so he’s going to have to beat home at least six younger horses. Not only that, but there were a few surprising entries for this particular un-graded race. Oh well. It is what it is. I’m not guaranteeing a check from Majestic Mannerism in this one, but I know he’ll give it all he’s got.

2010-02-26T16:48:00.001-05:00

Finally! It took way longer than I would have liked, but our 9YO stallion, Brilliant, had his first winner this past week. 3YO filly, Brilliant Dancer (a member of his first crop) won the Sarah Lane’s Oates Handicap at the Fair Grounds. The un-graded mile race on the turf only had three entrants, but we aren’t going to complain. If asked which one of his offspring would produce the first victory, I doubt that the Ashrose Dancer daughter would have been one of my choices. Nothing against her, she’s just going to be a late maturing type like her parents. Hopefully, now that the ice has been broken, more victories from Brilliant offspring will follow.

A quality win!

2010-02-08T08:30:00.000-05:00

Yep, a quality win. That would have to be the best way to describe it. Beating the defending BC Endurance champ, AND the defending BC Classic champ, AND a $4 million earning mare all in one race. Not only that, but to do it with a 6YO that was picked up off the scrap heap last year. Quality.

Correo Expreso took down the Grade 1 (his first) Gulfstream Park Handicap by a half length over defending Endurance champ, Vindictive. The $210,000 winning check brings his career total to $820,500. Nothing all that extraordinary about that number. Consider this though; every penny has been earned in the last nine races since I picked him up from Endless Vista.

Correo Expreso wasn’t the only member of the “brigade” to run this week. Maroon Lodge also managed to grab a third in the Arcadia Handicap. So, the “geezers” are still maintaining their 100% cash rate for the year. I don’t know how long they can keep it up, but it sure will be fun finding out!

3YO colts

2010-02-07T04:38:00.000-05:00

This is how I currently rank the 3YO colts. It isn’t strictly based on performance, as a little bit of “feel” has crept into my rankings. This ranking isn’t based on any mathematical formula. This is just one man’s opinion, so take it for what it’s worth.

1. Imperiosso (Revenge – Zoshka) Yeguada Lore Toki – This might be a surprising name for some to see at the top of the list, as you won’t find him on either of the top 3YO lists on the PF site. If you’ve been reading this site though, you might remember the mention he got after week one. I got to see him first hand in his season opening win, and this is one serious horse. He’s won three in a row now.

2. Krazy Sheikh (Parisian Sheikh – KrazyLove) South Beach Stables – Probably would be the choice of a lot of people to top this list. Don’t get me wrong, this is a serious horse too. He’s on an eight race win streak. BC Juvy winner. Set a WR last time out in beating the legendary Regal Son. One huge caveat from that race though, he only carried 98 pounds.

3. Two Thousand (A Bus – Kathy) Port Pirie Racing – Not sure if the recent switch to turf (two consecutive wins) is a permanent thing or nor since he can handle the dirt just as well. Strong second place finish in the BC Juvy. My current pick for the best A Bus, which is no small feat once you see the rest of the list.

4. Holiday At Mars (Mars – Holiday Queen) Chiknsmack Stables – The only sprinter to make the list. I’ve got to see him in person this year...in both his wins. Very fast. He has one issue that I believe his trainer has even mentioned. He’s going to the lead come hell or high water. If he has to work for it early, he probably won’t be around at the end. Luckily for him, he has so much speed that it hasn’t been an issue in his two starts this year.

5. Gradient (Memcay – Perfect Bell) Rainbow – Could be higher on this list, but there’s one thing that holds me back. His running style. He’s an “On the lead” type. Since he doesn’t have the biggest “top end” out there, he can burn himself out trying to get to the front early, like in the BC Juvy. However, if he can rate like he did in his first start of the year, the Risen Star, then look out. There’s a lot of his sire in him.

6. Serengeti (A Bus – Private Steer) Chiquita Lodge – Two Thousand is probably more like their sire than this one is, but this one is good is his own right. So far, he’s only raced on turf, so I assume he doesn’t go for the dirt. Depending on which way Two Thousand goes, the major 3YO turf races could end up being owned by A Bus progeny.

7. Indiscretion (A Bus – Sobriety) Snowbank Farm – Another turf monster (no, not in that way for all you PF vets) by A Bus. Another one that you might not be aware of…yet. Hasn’t won since his debut, but has a couple of nice performances so far this year. Might be considered more of a potential ranking at this point.

8. Islander (Palm Island – Just A Girl) Newsham Lodge – Maybe a bit of bias creeping in here. I tried to buy this horse during his 2YO season. I really like his potential. Only one win in ten career starts. His win came on dirt last year (in track record time). His only start this year was on the green stuff, and he finished second to Serengeti with a 106 PSR. He’s probably limited to mile/middle distances. It will be interesting to see how his connections handle him.

9. Triton (Skim The Hill – Spectacular Wiggle) Bally Doyle – So far in his career, it’s either win or finish off the board. Very fast and impressive debut to his 3YO season. Like Islander above him, he may be limited in distance. Nothing wrong with a really fast miler/middle distance type though.

10. Victory Troll (Troll Tower – Soviet Victory) Goforwand Stables – This spot was kind of a toss-up for me. Another horse that hasn’t won since his debut. Very solid performances until his last time out, which was a 110 PSR (second to Gradient in the Risen Star). A lot like his sire in that he wasn’t the best of his class either, but he was a damn fine horse that was always in the mix, made a lot of cash, and managed to pick off a few big ones along the way.

2010-02-06T01:17:00.000-05:00

Now, don’t get me wrong, I like seeing my 2YO’s debut as much as the next stable. But, there’s just something extra special about the “geezers”. Maybe it’s the fact that the 2YO’s have everything in front of them, while you never know when one of the brigade will have their last effective race. Then there’s the tendency (at least it seems that way) of horses being retired too early. If they aren’t being outright retired, it seems that they’re sold off. Some stables probably don’t have the patience to wait on a late-maturing type. Others don’t seem to want to race them after a certain age. This works out fine for me, because I’m always on the lookout for bargains.

This brings me to my contingent of “geezers”. I currently have six, 6YO racers. They’ve all made one start thus far on the season, and their combined record is 6:2-2-1-1, $272,250. That’s right, a 100% cash rate. Also, their average PSR is 100.26. If you throw in my lone 7YO to race (one has yet to make her season debut), the numbers become 7:2-2-1-2, $274,750, and the average PSR becomes 99.29. Obviously, a 100% cash rate won’t last all season, but I’ll be enjoying it for now.

The Brigade so far:

• Flavio – Won the General George Handicap in track record time, beating Rocket in the process. Ran a 114 PSR (two of his last three races have been 114’s). Five of his last six races have been 100+.
• Maroon Lodge – Won the Dixie Poker Ace Handicap with a 96, which is his first sub-100 PSR in his last five races. Has also won four of his last five starts.
• Wild Wonder – Finished second in the Tanforan Handicap with a career best PSR of 107. Has now cashed in 23 of 28 races since I picked him up off of the sales page. It’s also been 23 of the last 25, and twelve in a row.
• Royal Kiwi – Lost by a quarter of a length in trying to defend his Canadian Turf Handicap. Ran a 101. Four of his last ten starts have resulted in him setting a track record.
• Correo Expreso – Finished third, beaten by half a length, in the San Fernando B.C. Stakes. Probably would have won if he’d chosen the right path to take around the fading pacesetter. Ran a 107. That’s now six in a row of 100+.
• Majestic Mannerism – The old man of the group finished fourth in the Sam Houston Turf Sprint Cup Handicap. Ran a 93, and will face a pretty light schedule for the year. An interesting little note, as a 3YO he finished second in the Cigar Mile to Machete (also a 3YO that year). Machete has foals already on the track, and MM just cashed a race check. Did I mention that I love the “geezers”?
• The Big O – Finished fourth in trying to defend his Delta Mile Stakes title. Only ran a 78. Still, he’s won four of his past seven races, including two track records.

MUST. RESIST. Nah, forget it. I just can't help myself...

2010-02-01T04:30:00.001-05:00

WARNING!!! If you’re easily offended…yadda, yadda, yadda…or hurt…blah, blah, blah…you know the drill.

It’s really too easy. I could probably make this a regular feature, but it would have to get old after a bit, wouldn’t it? I guess we’ll see.

Anyway, our friend from a few posts ago served up this softball right over the heart of the plate today. What do you do with a fat pitch? Well, you have to take a swing at it, right?

“Swain's Gold would have had a win if not for Daredevil and Trigun”

Wow. I mean seriously, wow. What more can you say? One can only imagine…

On April 30, 1945, this may have been Hitler’s last words, “If only it weren’t for the Americans, Soviets, and Brits”.

In the spring of 1978, I’m pretty sure Believe It was heard to say after the Derby and Preakness, “I’d have won if it weren’t for Affirmed and Alydar”.

I’d imagine that Ross Perot uttered this on the night of November 3, 1992, “I’d have won if it hadn’t been for Clinton and Bush”.

For all you baseball fans out there. In ten of the last twelve years; Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and Toronto fans have been saying, “We’d have won the division if it hadn’t been for those damn Yankees and Red Sox”.

Me after this week’s results, “If it hadn’t been for Revenge Tower, Sharp Mind, Honestly, Pure Mercury, Passion, Compass, Full Moon Curse, Misdemeanor, and Midas Touch; Dancinroundthefire would’ve broken her maiden at first asking!”

I'm sure there's some more good ones that you guys (all five of you) could add to this.

What would you do for a friend?

2010-01-31T05:37:00.000-05:00

I know that Amanda gave it a mention in the results thread, but I’m not sure how many people have noticed Novice. The 4YO colt has been on a nice little, three-race roll for 4 Horsemen Stable. He’s taken out the Meadowlands Cup, Clark Handicap, and Donn Handicap in succession. All at nine furlongs. PSR’s of 114, 111, and 114. Winning times between 1:46.13 and 1:46.20. Earning $840,000 for his efforts. That’s a nice horse for any stable to have. It’s even better for a brand new stable. How exactly did he end up there though?

I’ve been friends with Mike, the owner of 4 Horsemen Stable, for quite a few years now. We used to work together back in the day. We’ve also been ultra-competitive with each other. Fantasy baseball. Fantasy football. Golf. Ping pong. Video games. You name it; we try to beat each other at it. Way back when, we had many video game sessions that lasted all night. Pizza, video games, and lots of smack talking. It doesn’t get any better than that. Hmmmm…I wonder why Old Milwaukee never used that in one of their ads?

Well, at the end of March of last year, we were hanging out and decided it was time for one of those video game marathons. Mike, his son Tyler, and I piled into car and headed off to various video game exchange stores to search for the night’s entertainment. We ended up getting a game for Tyler, a smash-‘em-up car game, and an old version of Gallop Racer. I mainly got the Gallop Racer for myself, as you normally don’t see them too often. Plus, it wasn’t something that I figured Mike would be into.

We got back to Mike’s house, and let Tyler play his game for a while. Then, everyone there took turns playing the smash-‘em-up game. After everyone else got tired and went to bed, Mike and I popped in the Gallop Racer. We played it, and played it, and played it, and played it. Mike was hooked. Well, as he’s getting more into the game, I start telling him about PF. By the time the sun is coming up, he’s ready to join up. I tell him what he has to do to join up, and tell him that I’ll take a look at the Endless Vista horses and see if I can find a few decent ones for him to start with.

When it was finally time for him to make his selections, I told him to take Novice. “If you don’t pick him, I’m going to ask Laurie if I can buy him.” For his second horse, I gave him a few names and he ended up taking Cinderella’s Curse. She wasn’t anything special, but she did earn $51,250 for him. This, when you’re just starting out, is all that you’re really looking for, a horse that makes you some money instead of eating it.

Novice was the big prize though. Despite that, it didn’t start off all rosy. In his first start, Novice ran like a bat-out-of-hell for the lead, never got there, and faded badly at the end. He ended up finishing 9th, beaten almost twenty lengths, with a PSR of 63. I get a call from Mike that afternoon. “Novice, huh? He raced like a Novice! I’m ready to send his ass to the glue factory.” I explained to Mike how the race went, talked him down off the ledge, and preached patience to him. Luckily for Mike (and me), he goes out and wins his next race. I get another call. “Does it have to be this easy? I’ll be dominating this game in no time. You just better avoid my horses, because you don’t want any of this.” Now, don’t take that the wrong way, folks. That’s just Mike. It’s been like that between us from the very beginning. We have fun with it.

Novice went on to win a second straight un-graded race before Mike decided it was time to start ramping up the competition. He had another clunker of a performance in a G2, before a couple of 4th place finishes in G3’s. It was then that Novice started the run that he’s currently on. Which lead to this message being left on my phone…

“Hey man, what’s going on? I’m trying to beat back all the press and reporters that are at my door. Trying to interview me for Novice. Racetrack Weekly and all these idiots. You know. Helicopters above my house. All this crap. I’m trying to keep the hype down, but it’s tough being humble. Alright, give me a call when you get a chance.”

I think that I’ve created a monster…

I just can't...

2010-01-31T04:05:00.000-05:00

WARNING! If you are one of those that gets easily offended or hurt by frank talk of a horse’s “merits”, then I’d advise you to not to read any further. Ok, now that that is out of the way…

A little over a week ago, we had a nice discussion on the PF forum that started off about the entry deadline and then kind of branched off into horses being entered above/below their level, some talk about racing strictly in one region, and Chelsey dropped some math into it. All in all, it was a nice little thread. Quite a few people participated, it remained civil, and then it was done.

Then, a few days later, in the “How did you do?” section I saw this…

"If it weren't for that stakes winning colt v 2 maiden fillies I mentioned in another thread, Light Touch would have racheted [sic] up a win...thanks a heap Newsham!"

The author of this quote was one of the ones “complaining” about stars being dropped down into inappropriate races against the “little guys” in the aforementioned thread. Well, after seeing this “swipe” at Newsham Lodge, I figured I’d take a look at the race.

First off, let’s look at the “stakes winning colt”, Moving Mountains. He came into the race with three career wins (twenty-one starts) and earnings of $138,100. Two of his wins were at the un-graded level and came with PSR’s of 69 and 74. His third victory did come in a G3, albeit a $50,000 race. In other words, it wasn’t much different than an un-graded race. His PSR in that one was 83. For his career, the 4YO has an average PSR of 72.26. No offense meant to Newsham Lodge, but Moving Mountains isn’t a star. Kudos to John for realizing this and racing him in un-graded races, where he seems to belong. There should be no complaints about this horse being raced in un-graded races now or in the future.

Since “maiden fillies” were mentioned, as if Moving Mountains was picking on them or as it was put by another poster in the thread that started all this, “bullying inferior horses”, let’s tackle that next. If I had a maiden filly, the last place I’d be looking for races would be in open competition. I’d be trying to cut down the possible competition as much as I possibly could. Maybe that’s just one of my silly idiosyncrasies though as not one, but two people went that route.

Lastly, we can move on to the “aggrieved” horse, Light Touch. 19 career starts. Her career best PSR is 65. Average PSR of 37.48. She’s finished ahead of thirteen horses total in her nineteen starts. There’s no other way to say this. This is a terrible horse. It seems pretty disingenuous to be complaining about not getting a win. I’d say the owner should be thanking their lucky stars for being given free money in this race, as this horse really isn’t up to earning any on her own merits.

Go fast and prosper.

2010-01-17T02:55:00.001-05:00

I can’t remember exactly what took me there, but I recently ended up on the track records page and decided to make a list of current records held by horses that are associated with the stable. It seems like the records page is in a fairly perpetual state of flux. As an example from our stable, Brilliant set five different track records during his career. Yet, he’s no where to be found on the current page. Therefore, I was pleasantly surprised to see the stable relatively well represented on the current page. Eventually, as the game ages even further, you would think that things will eventually stabilize some, as the records go low enough to where they aren’t easily attainable.

We'll start off with the records that have been set by horses that were running under our colors and are currently with the stable.

Correo Expreso - 8 furlongs (D), 1:33.40, Del Mar, 9/2/12
Dare To Know - 8 furlongs (D), 1:34.83, Delaware Park, 6/7/11
Dare To Know - 8.5 furlongs (D), 1:40.52, Hoosier Park, 10/6/11
Dare To Know - 7 furlongs (D), 1:21.46, Keeneland, 4/8/12
Dare To Know - 8 furlongs (D), 1:33.91, Mountaineer, 11/8/12
Dare To Win - 5 furlongs (T), :56.55, Sam Houston Race Park, 2/15/12
Fantasy Flight - 8 furlongs (D), 1:35.57, Monmouth Park, 8/22/09
Flavio - 8 furlongs (D), 1:34.34, Evangeline Downs, 8/12/12
Malvern Hill - 12 furlongs (T), 2:24.41, Longchamp, 10/13/10
Maroon Lodge - 7 furlongs (T), 1:21.21, Belmont Park, 5/27/12
Maroon Lodge - 8 furlongs (T), 1:34.58, Hawthorne, 7/21/12
Metal Stake - 11 furlongs (T), 2:13.69, Aqueduct, 11/17/12
Presidential Ball - 8.5 furlongs (T), 1:39.85, Gulfstream Park, 1/2/13 (WR)
Quixote - 7 furlongs (D), 1:21.50, Sam Houston Race Park, 1/4/12
Quixote - 5.5 furlongs (T), 1:02.71, Fair Grounds, 12/22/12
Royal Kiwi - 8 furlongs (T), 1:34.79, Hawkesbury, 5/13/11
Royal Kiwi - 9 furlongs (T), 1:46.99, Gulfstream Park, 1/21/12
Royal Kiwi - 8 furlongs (T), 1:34.54, Monmouth Park, 5/28/12
Royal Kiwi - 8.5 furlongs (T), 1:40.50, Monmouth Park, 7/8/12
The Big O - 8 furlongs (D), 1:35.14, Delta Downs, 2/16/12
The Big O - 8 furlongs (D), 1:34.10, Pinnacle Race Course, 9/10/12
Under Moonshine - 6 furlongs (D), 1:08.96, Mountaineer, 11/18/11

We also have a small group of horses currently a part of our stable that still hold records that they set before we acquired them.

Bombtrack - 9 furlongs (T), 1:47.85, Cheltenham, 3/11/11
Flavio - 8.5 furlongs (T), 1:41.40, Churchill Downs, 4/30/10
Metal Stake - 8 furlongs (T), 1:36.03, La Zarzuela, 6/29/11
Red Star - 8 furlongs (T), 1:33.57, Santa Anita, 2/23/08

The last group of current record holders is from horses that set the records while running for us, but are no longer with the stable.

Anotherdropoflava - 5 furlongs (D), :55.55, Santa Anita, 2/26/10 (WR)
Anotherdropoflava - 5 furlongs (D), :56.15, Churchill Downs, 4/28/10
Big Risk - 8.5 furlongs (T), 1:40.97, Hialeah Park, 3/19/11
Exquisite Secret - 8.5 furlongs (T), 1:40.45, Bay Meadows, 1/28/12

What a way to start!

2010-01-16T22:07:00.000-05:00

If you had asked me for my ideal start to the new season, I'm not sure that I could've come up with a better scenario. Sure, I might have asked for more wins. Or more earnings. Or more runners finishing in the money. But, now that it's over, I'm more than happy with my 14:4-1-2-2, $222,300 showing. The four wins tied Chicknsmack Stables for the most for the week. Our earnings total placed us 9th overall. We'll take that every time.

Presidential Ball, now THAT was a satisfying victory. As I watched the Survivor contest picks pile up for Paint The Roses, the more I wanted this one. Presidential Ball went off as the 2nd choice, while Paint The Roses was the pretty big favorite. It didn’t look good early either. Paint The Roses was having it all her own way early, just loping along with an easy lead and no one challenging her. Presidential Ball didn’t really fire out of the gate and went very easily at first (despite being set as “On The Lead”), dropping as much as seven lengths behind. He then ramped up the effort level (level “4”) in order to fall in with the stalking group about four lengths off the lead. With about two furlongs to go, he started with his all out drive and left the rest of the stalkers in his wake. He pulled along side Paint The Roses’ rear flank with about one furlong to go and finally made her get out of “third gear”. The rest of the stretch he slowly cut into her lead until he was just a head behind with a tenth of a furlong to go. I was literally on the edge of my seat urging him on…willing him to go faster. When they hit the line, I couldn’t tell who had won, but my initial thought was “NO! He just missed.” Then the photo for the win was shown. I jumped out of my seat, yelled “YES!”, and proceeded to give the air a knockout punch. I then noticed the final time and instantly knew that it was a new world record. What a way to start off the new season!

Presidential Ball’s record now stands at 15:11-2-0, $1,328,750. In addition to becoming our first winner of the Appleton, he lowered the race record by nearly a full second (.87). At the eight-and-a-half furlong distance, he is now a perfect three for three, with the last two efforts resulting in world records. (The legendary Color of Fame held the record in between Presidential Ball’s record setting performances.) After that performance, would you find another distance (or track for that matter) for his next start? Yeah, me neither.

What I’ve Done finished third in the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park. While it wasn’t an awful performance, it was still a bit disappointing. He went off as the solid 2nd choice behind the clear favorite Holiday At Mars. He started off well, leading to the first split in a snappy :22.14, with the favorite right on his heels. The big problem though is that he was working harder to run this pace that what his competitor was. Once Holiday At Mars took the lead, and was still easing along, that was pretty much all she wrote. Despite the disappointment, we won’t be deviating from the plan just yet. After all, it was a very fast race, just .01 off of the race record. Plus, What I’ve Done seemed just a bit “off”. Maybe it was the deeper track. Maybe he just needs more rest than what I normally give my mature 3YO’s. We’ll figure it out. We’ll go with the track theory for now, as he’s off to the much harder surface of Santa Anita next.

Poor Jetsetter. That was pretty ugly. She went to the post as the extreme outsider, 76:1. She went right to the back, no surprise there, falling twenty-two lengths off the pace. She made a mild rally, getting to within fourteen lengths in the stretch. Then came her injury, as she ended up twenty-five lengths back. The injury is a fairly serious one for the PF world, as it will put her on the shelf for twenty-nine days. If everything goes right in her recovery, she’ll be heading to New Mexico in April for some low-level racing. That’s right; we’re not sending her to the glue factory (otherwise known as Endless Vista) just yet. We’re kind of stubborn that way.

Cielo di Fuoco was impressive in his debut for the stable in winning the Sam Houston Sprint Handicap by two-and-a-half lengths. With the win, he has paid back his auction price and maintenance fees for the year, the rest of the year will just be gravy. He only broke about mid-pack, but quickly (and fairly easily) made it up to the front and was never really threatened after that. He didn’t give full effort until there were about three-tenths-of-a-furlong left. I think he was just showing off, because no one was going to catch him. The stable has now won back-to-back Sam Houston Sprint Handicaps (Quixote won last year). Cielo di Fuoco’s time of 1:22 was just .5 off of Quixote’s race and track record. Even though turf should be his better surface, we’re going to stick to 7 furlongs on the dirt for Cielo di Fuoco’s next start. Look for him in March at Santa Anita.

Maroon Lodge just keeps plugging away. The now 6YO easily won the Dixie Poker Ace Handicap as the very close 2nd choice (Awesome Crypto had a $13 edge in the Win Pool wagering). Maroon Lodge had the outside post in the field of nine. That normally wouldn’t be too much of a concern, but at this particular distance at the Fair Grounds turf track the first turn is about one furlong from the starting gate. Instead of getting hung way outside, Maroon Lodge put on a burst of speed out of the gate, got ahead of everyone, and then made his way to the inside. He then settled in to stalk the pace set by the favorite. At the two furlong to go mark, he kicked it into high gear and left the field in his wake. With a furlong to go, he dropped it down to “3rd gear” and cruised the rest of the way home. His winning time of 1:28.63 was only .04 off of the race record. Maroon Lodge has now won four of his last five starts with an average PSR of 101.8. He’ll now head to Santa Anita for the Arcadia Handicap in March.

Bold Star only ran 4th. She was “only” the 3rd choice in the race (though the first four were all within $116 in the Win Pool). That doesn’t matter, I’m still very happy with this performance and what I think the rest of the year holds. This was a very fast race, with a winning PSR of 112. The winning time was a record for the race, and it was only .21 off of the track record. Bold Star ran well, and we think she’s going to go on from this to have a nice year. The next step? She’ll be heading to the Fair Grounds for the Silverbulletday.

Link To Brilliance was the long shot in a field of eleven at 38:1. Now for the good news, he finished 7th, beaten by only four-and-a-quarter lengths. He ran a career best 81 PSR. We remain optimistic that this horse will show some good things by the end of the year. He’ll head to Santa Anita for his next one and stretch out the distance a little more.

Risk the River and Bronzo Gotico were our pair of entries in the Virgin Stakes. Risk the River was the 4th choice and Bronzo Gotico was the 6th choice of nine starters. They basically ran side-by-side for the first four-and-a-half furlongs. At the top of the stretch, they split to avoid a fading horse (interestingly enough, their former stable mate, Lava Gold). Bronzo Gotico got through clean, but Risk The River didn’t. As he tried to move over one path to get clear of the fader, another horse cut him off and forced him into Lava Gold. The break in his momentum was too much to overcome. Bronzo Gotico ended up finishing 3rd, with Risk The River following in 4th. Our claim of foul was “surprisingly” denied by the stewards. Bronzo Gotico heads to the Fair Grounds next for the Allen Lacombe. Risk The River gets a break until April and the San Simeon at Santa Anita.

Super Charger was our first 2YO to hit the track. He went to post in the Lightning Stakes as the 15th choice in the field of twenty at 24:1. He finished 12th and flashed a little speed. We like the looks of him, and think he’ll end up being a decent horse. He’ll continue training at the Santa Anita track with his next target being the Dougal.

Pass the Soup went to the post in an eight-and-a-half furlong Allowance at Shenandoah Downs as the solid 3rd choice behind two pretty big favorites. I said in my preview of the stable’s entries that this race was all about pace and the key was if Pass the Soup would get an easy lead or not. Well, when I looked at the race set-up, I wasn’t encouraged. Four of the six (including Pass the Soup) were set for “Go for the Lead”. I needn’t have been worried. Two-and-a-half furlongs in, Pass the Soup was comfortably in the lead and settled in. He had two lengths on his nearest competitor and eight lengths plus on the rest of the field. He briefly went to “4th gear” with about two furlongs to go, but dropped it back down a gear in the last furlong as he was never seriously threatened. His PSR of 103 was a career best. In addition to winning two in a row, he has now cashed in seven straight races. We were tempted for about half a second to try nine furlongs the next time out, but common sense overcame the urge. He looked really good at eight-and-a-half, so we’ll stick with that the next time out. He’ll head to the Fair Grounds for the Whirlaway.

Henry’s Halo finished 7th of 9 in the Colonel Power Handicap. He was the longest shot on the board at 19:1. He doesn’t seem to want to run much out of the gate, so we’re hoping he can stretch out to about 7 furlongs when he matures. (That’s right, when he matures. Even though he’s now four, we still don’t think he’s quite there yet.) That extra furlong can be a big difference for a late-running sprinter type. The Magnolia State Stakes at the Fair Grounds is next on the agenda for him. Hopefully, a little lower level of competition shows up for that one.

Cry Freedom took on a field of fourteen 3YO colts in the Lecomte Stakes. He went to the post as the 5th choice in a field of fourteen. He didn’t win (finishing 2nd), but he really impressed us. He sat mid-pack most of the race, rating very well and not getting involved in the silliness going on up front. When it was time to run, he blew by all of them (even the big favorite, Royal Money) except the eventual winner (who was also blowing by everyone from mid-pack). By the way, keep an eye out for the winner, Imperiosso, he’s a Derby contender if the connections decide to go that route. We feel that Cry Freedom is going to be a very solid miler for the rest of the year. What’s next? We’re not really sure yet; either the Sam F. Davis or the Clyde B. Stephens.

Under Moonshine was the 4th choice of 9 in the Pelican Stakes, and ended up finishing 5th. He settled in about seven lengths off the lead, which he does do on occasion. When it was time to run, he got cut off by two different fading horses. Sometimes you make it through the faders unscathed, sometimes you don’t. He ended up with the biggest ESN of the field. I doubt he catches the leaders without the break in momentum, but I could’ve seen him cashing. Oh well, there’s always next time. Speaking of which, he’ll be at Santa Anita next for the Portrero Grande. He finished 4th in that race last year, but put up a career best 110 PSR.

What exactly does it take to win?

2010-01-03T21:37:00.000-05:00

If you asked the above question to a number of different players, you’d probably get a number of different answers. A fast horse. A horse with good stamina. A horse that has lots of courage. A horse that runs on the lead. Good placement. A bit of racing luck. Various combinations of any of the above. Or it could be something else entirely. The point of this article isn’t to pick one of the above attributes as what it takes to win. Rather, this will be a statistical look at what it took to win during the 2012 season.

• The average winning PSR in G1’s was 103.67 (243 races).
• In G2’s it was 99.1 (255 races).
• In G3’s it was 96.99 (352 races).
• In un-graded races it was 91.16 (592 races).
• In maiden races it was 87.46 (23 races).
• In starter allowances it was 88.25 (42 races).
• In allowances it was 92.25 (60 races).
• In races on dirt it was 94.77 (635 races).
• In races on turf it was 97.15 (807 races).
• In three furlong races it was 116.32 (1 race).
• In 4f races it was 100.41 (10 races).
• In 4.5f races it was 95.08 (18 races).
• In 5f races it was 97.2 (77 races).
• In 5.5f races it was 102.5 (61 races).
• In 6f races it was 90.41 (219 races).
• In 6.5f races it was 96.51 (42 races).
• In 7f races it was 91.28 (154 races).
• In 7.5f races it was 92.93 (29 races).
• In 8f races it was 94.04 (208 races).
• In 8.5f races it was 99.47 (180 races).
• In 9f races it was 99.16 (174 races).
• In 9.5f races it was 100.26 (22 races).
• In 10f races it was 93.36 (91 races).
• In 10.5f races it was 111.6 (7 races).
• In 11f races it was 106.2 (38 races).
• In 12f races it was 95.75 (71 races).
• In 12.5f races it was 109.16 (11 races).
• In 13f races it was 112.9 (4 races).
• In 13.5f races it was 112.21 (1 race).
• In 14f races it was 113.27 (5 races).
• In 16f races it was 107.05 (19 races).

Finally!

2010-01-03T13:01:00.000-05:00

Great news was received this weekend as it was announced that the 2013 racing season is finally getting under way. After “The Off-season That Wouldn’t End” ™, the new schedule was posted late Saturday night. I went to work straight away on setting up my “2013 Races” © Excel sheet. All the North American tracks have been identified, all the “other” tracks have been sorted out of the way, and it was time to pick out the first race for each and every of our forty-eight racers. After all the dust had settled, we will have fourteen entries for the first week of the season.

Presidential Ball will lead things off in the Appleton Handicap. This will be his first race at the mile-and-a-sixteenth distance since his world record setting run in May of the 2012 season. This will be Presidential Ball’s second ever start at Gulfstream Park. He won in his only other start at the track. If he wins, he would join his stable mate, Flavio, as a winner of the Appleton Handicap. However, it would be the stable’s first win of the race. (Flavio won the race before we acquired him.) As a stable, we’ve had runners in five of the seven runnings of the Appleton. Four of our five runners finished in 4th place, including Presidential Ball’s sire, President Halo. Despite the disappointing results, the performances have been solid. The PSR’s for our five runners have been: 107, 107, 101, 97, and 99.

Joining Presidential Ball on the trailer down to Gulfstream will be What I’ve Done. Our first real target for What I’ve Done was the San Vicente Stakes in February. Unfortunately, he’s ready to go now, so we had to find something in the first week as a tune-up. The Spectacular Bid Stakes was the only thing that fit. It’s another race that the stable has yet to capture in three previous tries. We’ve yet to have a decent performance in the race, even though Exquisite Secret did finish 2nd in the 2009 race. This will be What I’ve Done’s debut at Gulfstream.

Next up is our “hopeless cause”, the quest to get Jetsetter a win. It doesn’t look promising, but we’re going to keep plugging away! The 4YO filly is on her way down to the Fair Grounds (as part of a four horse contingent) to give it a go in the Truly Bound Handicap. While she hasn’t shown much yet, she has at least beaten horses home in her last three starts. (Something she hadn’t done in her first eight starts.) Hey, you have to look for the positives! This will be the stable’s second try at this race. Last year, Dark Glass brought home a 3rd.

We’ll get our first look at auction purchase, Cielo di Fuoco, in the Sam Houston Sprint Handicap. Ideally, he’ll be on the turf a majority of the time. He was long overdue for a race, and this looked like the best spot. Last year in this race, we sent out a new auction purchase, Quixote, and he came home a winner. Hopefully, Cielo di Fuoco can follow in his footsteps.

6YO Maroon Lodge is part of the contingent headed to the Fair Grounds. He’s another one of the horses that needed a race before his intended target, the Arcadia Handicap in March. He’ll get his tune-up in the Dixie Poker Ace Handicap. Maroon Lodge has made one previous appearance at the track, finishing 2nd with a 102 PSR. The stable is 0-1 in this particular race.

Bold Star will kick off her 3YO season in the Santa Ysabel Stakes at Santa Anita. This should give us a pretty good idea of the path to put her on for the remainder of the year as this race should attract some pretty nice fillies. Historically, it’s been a very fast race with a 99 being the lowest winning PSR in its first four runnings. This will be the stable’s first entry in the race.

Link To Brilliance heads to Calder for his 3YO debut in the Second Chance Stakes. This probably isn’t the ideal distance, but we had to start somewhere. At some point this year, we feel he’ll come into his own. Hopefully, he does better than his sire, Brilliant, who came in last in the 2007 edition of this race. In addition to that last place finish, the stable has tried this race five other times with a 3rd and four 4th’s.

The Virgin Stakes at Calder will be getting a tag team from the stable. Bronzo Gotico and Risk The River have been entered to contest the six furlong race on the turf. Bronzo Gotico will be trying the distance for the first time since his first start for us at the beginning of the 2012 season. That start was also his very first win. Risk The River will be coming back on what is very short rest for one of our racers, twenty-one days. It will be a one-time thing, as there just isn’t anything early in the schedule that is suitable. That’s the one problem with sticking to the no “globe-hopping” restriction I’ve set upon myself, a lack of turf sprints. He’ll get plenty of rest after this one, as the next suitable spot looks to be in April. Risk The River also started last year out at Calder and ran a decent 3rd. This will be Bronzo Gotico’s first attempt at the track. This will be the stable’s third and fourth entries in this race. Dare To Bay came in 4th in 2006 and Majestic Motion finished 2nd last year.

Super Charger will be the first 2YO to hit the track for us this year. He will be going in the three furlong Lightning Stakes at Santa Anita. He’s not a home bred, as we picked him up in the auction as a yearling for $10,000. We figured he was worth a shot for that price. Plus, we liked his name and the fact that he was black. He gets the nod in this one because he’s supposedly the stable’s early, dirt sprinter. We shall see. This will be the stable’s third entry into this race, with a 3rd by Nazgul in 2005 as the best showing so far.

Pass the Soup will look to stretch out beyond a mile for the first time in a $68,000 Allowance at Shenandoah Downs. It’s all about pace in this one. Pass the Soup will go to the lead. If he doesn’t get challenged, he has a shot. If there’s a speed duel, he’ll more than likely burn himself out trying to keep his nose out front. He does have experience at this track with a win, two 2nd’s, and a 3rd in five starts.

This year will see our first ever entry in the Colonel Power Handicap at the Fair Grounds. Late maturing sprinter, Henry’s Halo, will be looking to improve on his career best PSR and finish, achieved in his last time out as a 3YO. Hopefully, he starts to reach his peak this year.

Cry Freedom gets his first shot at a mile in his 3YO debut in the Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds. He made nice progress throughout his 2YO year, and we’re thinking that a mile should be right up his alley. This will be his first start at the track, and the stable’s first start in this race.

To round things out, Under Moonshine is entered in The Pelican Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Three of his five career wins have come at the six furlong distance. He won three of his last five races as a 4YO, so we’re hoping to see if his form continues to his 5YO season. Under Moonshine has once other appearance at this track, a 2nd in his 3YO debut. This will be the stable’s first start in this race.

A look at the breeding results...

2009-12-17T23:45:00.001-05:00

The results are finally in! Well, the AR’s have finally been received anyway. What does it mean for future on-track performances? Not much really. I guess they’re interesting to look at for a minute. Plus, I can get a cheap post out of them. Other than that, well, I’m sure most people know what I think of them… Anyway, might as well give them the “treatment”.

Was it a return of “The Boys Are Back in Town”?

Nope, it was a nice mix this year; seven colts and nine fillies. Quite a big difference from the successive years in which I had something like sixteen of seventeen come out as colts!

When can we expect you to run?

Unlike this year’s crop of 2YO’s, which include a lot of late maturing types, the 2015 class is predominantly early maturing. Twelve of the sixteen are listed as “mature quickly” (2-3). The remaining four are designated as “average maturing” (3-4).

How long will you be around?

Apparently, about as long as the average fruit fly. Ok, that might be a bit of an exaggeration. Nine of the sixteen are predicted to have short peaks. Four are supposed to have an average peak and the remaining three are listed as long peaks. All-in-all, it’s not a bad ratio.

What exactly do you prefer?

Evidently, green will be in for 2015. All sixteen of the foals are “OK” or better on hard turf. Ten of them are prefer, three are good, and three more are OK. Fourteen of the sixteen are “OK or better on hard dirt. Unfortunately, OK is the prevalent rating with eight. Four check in with prefer, two are good, and one each of poor and dislikes. Thirteen of the sixteen are “OK” or better on soft turf. Six check in with a good rating, four prefer, three are OK, two are poor, and one dislikes. On soft dirt, eleven of sixteen are “OK” or better. Five each are good or OK. Only one prefers. Three are poor and the last two dislike. Only seven of the sixteen are “OK” or better in the mud. Four are OK and three are good, while none of them prefer it. Six of them are poor and two dislike it.

How busy is the medical staff going to be?

It doesn’t look too bad…at least on paper. Seven of the sixteen are classified as very hardy. Six more check in with average soundness. That leaves three with the dreaded “physical problems”.

Are you listening to me?

For the most part, this crop seems like it will listen better than your typical 2YO child. Eight of the sixteen are reputed to have average ratability. Six of them are going to “obey their jockey”. The final two…well, they’re going to do what they damn well please!

How far can you take me?

Now comes the part that I feel that way too many put way too much faith in, the distance line. I take these with a HUGE grain of salt. That being said, here’s the breakdown; six are distance, five are classic, three are milers, and two are sprinters.

Ability Report for horse 13154

Vaguely Virtuous (2013), 17.2 hand bay filly
By Honour My Name out of Dark Glass by Thunder Arctic

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.
This horse is ok on hard dirt.
This horse is ok on soft dirt.
This horse dislikes mud.
This horse prefers hard turf.
This horse is good on soft turf.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse looks like it can run at classic distances.

Ability Report for horse 13148

After Dinner Mint (2013), 16.3 hand chestnut filly
By Unknown Direction out of Wood Nymph by Forest Dancer

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing
season.
This horse is ok on hard dirt.
This horse is ok on soft dirt.
This horse is poor in mud.
This horse prefers hard turf.
This horse prefers soft turf.
This horse is of average soundness.
This horse has a mind of its own and likes to run at its own pace.
This horse likes a lot of distance.

Ability Report for horse 13141

Anduril (2013), 16.2 hand light bay colt
By Narsil out of Déjà vu by Shorblue

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse is poor on soft dirt.
This horse is poor in mud.
This horse prefers hard turf.
This horse is good on soft turf.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse has a mind of its own and likes to run at its own pace.
This horse likes a lot of distance.

Ability Report for horse 13150

Bad Hoodoo (2013), 16 hand chestnut filly
By Deux Francais out of Hyde and Seek by Magic Weisner

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will enjoy a long peak performance time, several racing seasons.
This horse is ok on hard dirt.
This horse is good on soft dirt.
This horse is ok in mud.
This horse is ok on hard turf.
This horse prefers soft turf.
This horse is of average soundness.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse appears to be primarily a miler.

Ability Report for horse 13155

Candy Corn (2013), 17.1 hand brown colt
By Our Differences out of Classy Lady by Backlit

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing
season.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse is ok on soft dirt.
This horse is ok in mud.
This horse is good on hard turf.
This horse is good on soft turf.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse obeys its jockey and is flexible in its pacing.
This horse likes a lot of distance.

Ability Report for horse 13152

Dust Bunny (2013), 16.3 hand bay filly
By Misty Mountain Hop out of Change of Scenery by Aly's Alley

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.
This horse is good on hard dirt.
This horse is good on soft dirt.
This horse is ok in mud.
This horse is ok on hard turf.
This horse is good on soft turf.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse appears to be a sprinter.

Ability Report for horse 13153

Dusty Halo (2013), 15.3 hand black colt
By President Halo out of Henry's Slew by John Henry

This horse will mature at the average rate (3-4).
This horse will enjoy a long peak performance time, several racing seasons.
This horse is ok on hard dirt.
This horse prefers soft dirt.
This horse is ok in mud.
This horse prefers hard turf.
This horse is ok on soft turf.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse obeys its jockey and is flexible in its pacing.
This horse appears to be primarily a miler.

Ability Report for horse 13142

Fantastic Fantasy (2013), 15.3 hand light gray colt
By Fantasy Flight out of Worth The Risk by Fantastic Light

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will enjoy a long peak performance time, several racing seasons.
This horse is ok on hard dirt.
This horse dislikes soft dirt.
This horse is poor in mud.
This horse is good on hard turf.
This horse is ok on soft turf.
This horse has physical problems that may lead to a lot of injury downtime.
This horse obeys its jockey and is flexible in its pacing.
This horse appears to be a sprinter.

Ability Report for horse 13143

Fantasy Express (2013), 15.2 hand black colt
By Fantasy Flight out of Midnight Express by Commands

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing
season.
This horse is ok on hard dirt.
This horse is ok on soft dirt.
This horse is poor in mud.
This horse prefers hard turf.
This horse prefers soft turf.
This horse is of average soundness.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse likes a lot of distance.

Ability Report for horse 13149

Flaming Diamond (2013), 16 hand brown filly
By Brilliant out of Sweet Angelic by Clever Yank

This horse will mature at the average rate (3-4).
This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing
season.
This horse is poor on hard dirt.
This horse is good on soft dirt.
This horse is ok in mud.
This horse is ok on hard turf.
This horse is poor on soft turf.
This horse has physical problems that may lead to a lot of injury downtime.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse appears to be primarily a miler.

Ability Report for horse 13140

Hammerfest (2013), 16.3 hand light gray colt
By Unknown Direction out of Safe Harbor by Fraar

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.
This horse is ok on hard dirt.
This horse is good on soft dirt.
This horse is poor in mud.
This horse is good on hard turf.
This horse prefers soft turf.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse looks like it can run at classic distances.

Ability Report for horse 13151

In The Pink (2013), 16.3 hand bay filly
By Bombtrack out of Enchanting Waltz by Octagonal Waltz

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing
season.
This horse is good on hard dirt.
This horse is poor on soft dirt.
This horse is good in mud.
This horse prefers hard turf.
This horse dislikes soft turf.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse looks like it can run at classic distances.

Ability Report for horse 13147

Primeval Dawn (2013), 16 hand dark gray filly
By Honour My Name out of The Actress by Johannesburg

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing
season.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse is ok on soft dirt.
This horse dislikes mud.
This horse prefers hard turf.
This horse is good on soft turf.
This horse has physical problems that may lead to a lot of injury downtime.
This horse obeys its jockey and is flexible in its pacing.
This horse likes a lot of distance.

Ability Report for horse 13145

Southern Star (2013), 17.1 hand bay filly
By Sir Empire out of Red Star by Aldebaran

This horse will mature at the average rate (3-4).
This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing
season.
This horse is ok on hard dirt.
This horse is good on soft dirt.
This horse is good in mud.
This horse prefers hard turf.
This horse is poor on soft turf.
This horse is of average soundness.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse likes a lot of distance.

Ability Report for horse 13144

Stick To Your Guns (2013), 17.1 hand brown colt
By Brilliant out of Kupalinka by Ringaskiddy

This horse will mature at the average rate (3-4).
This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing
season.
This horse dislikes hard dirt.
This horse is poor on soft dirt.
This horse is poor in mud.
This horse prefers hard turf.
This horse is ok on soft turf.
This horse is of average soundness.
This horse obeys its jockey and is flexible in its pacing.
This horse looks like it can run at classic distances.

Ability Report for horse 13146

Sweet Music (2013), 17 hand light gray filly
By Bombtrack out of Fine Dancer by Forest Dancer

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early (2-3).
This horse will have a very short peak time, perhaps only a single racing
season.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse dislikes soft dirt.
This horse is good in mud.
This horse prefers hard turf.
This horse is good on soft turf.
This horse is of average soundness.
This horse obeys its jockey and is flexible in its pacing.
This horse looks like it can run at classic distances.

Breeding news leaking out...

2009-12-11T21:22:00.000-05:00

Now that Crista from Rivendell Farms has been sending me threatening messages, it’s pretty obvious that the Narsil x Déjà vu pairing has produced a colt. So, welcome to the stable, Anduril!

A look back...

2009-12-05T17:36:00.002-05:00

Sometimes, things just go right. I’d like to think that the successful campaign that was 2012 was all about me. That I’ve figured this game out. That my methods are the best way to go. That the success is sustainable. Then again, maybe I just got lucky. All of my “mediocre” horses were running over their heads. It was a fluke year. More likely though, it’s a little bit of both. I’ve found something that works for me and coupled that with some good fortune. Whatever it is, sign me up for more.

That sure was a lot of winning.

75! Just wow. I never would’ve even set that as a goal coming into the season. That was just four fewer wins than the previous two seasons combined…in 172 fewer races. It was also just ten less wins than my first six years combined. Oh yeah, in 280 fewer starts. It was more wins than every other stable in the game besides Italian super-stable, Olmo Dorato. The 75 wins came in a new stable record of 311 starts in a season. That works out to a 24% win percentage, my best yet in nine years of operation. As the competition keeps getting tougher and the wins harder to come by, this may very well be the stable’s historic season when it comes to win percentage.

No grade 1’s?

That’s right, out of all those wins there was nary a G1 victory. I really had no idea that I hadn’t won a G1. Upon further review, I only entered 14 G1’s on the year. I would never have guessed that either. The thing is, I really don’t pay attention to the grade of a race when I’m picking out races for horses. The main things I take into consideration are the distance, surface, track, and occasionally I’ll look at the purse. I never sort the schedule based on grade. I’m basically trying to find the perfect “fit” for each horse…where do they belong? Oh yeah, my performance in those G1’s this year… 14:0-2-5-2, $458,750, and an average PSR of 97.76. Not too bad considering the lack of a victory. I’d say that they “fit” in those races for the most part.

There must’ve been a few horses that won a whole bunch of races.

Nope. Instead, a whole bunch of horses won a few races. Presidential Ball led the way with 6 wins. No one else won more than 4. On the other hand, nine different horses managed the 4 win total. That’s pretty amazing in and of itself. That’s just a lot of racers having solid years all at the same time. The 4-time winners were: Bold Star, Bronzo Gotico, Correo Expreso, Dancingonyourgrave, Dare To Know, Quixote, Royal Kiwi, The Big O, and The Promise. In total, 33 of the 51 runners that went to post this year for the stable managed a win.

Malvern Hill was just too good.

Despite the record for wins, the earnings on the year of $7,149,250 did not eclipse the number achieved in the 2010 season ($7,815,075). Of course, that was the year that Malvern Hill earned over $4 million all by himself. This season, I didn’t have any horses that won even $1 million. Presidential Ball just missed with $998,750. How then did I come so close to setting the earnings mark? Simple. Almost everyone contributed. 45 of the 51 runners on the year cashed at least once (5 of the 6 that didn’t cash were 2YO’s). 18 earned in excess of $100,000.

311 starts?! Over-race much???

That does sound like I’m running them into the ground, doesn’t it? Actually, my group has to be one of the more rested in the game. 311 starts spread between 51 runners means about 6 per horse. The most starts that any of my horses had on the year was nine. The six horses that carried that “heavy” load were: Dancingonyourgrave, Dare To Know, Flavio, Presidential Ball, Quixote, and The Promise. The start breakdown by age goes like this:

• 2YO (12) – 39 starts, 3.25 avg., high of 6

• 3YO (11) – 71, 6.45, 9

• 4YO (11) – 84, 7.64, 9

• 5YO (14) – 95, 6.79, 9

• 6YO (3) – 22, 7.33, 8

Heck, looking at those numbers, there are probably quite a few out there that would say that I don’t run mine enough.

What’s with the geezer brigade?

You know, I never really pay much attention to how old they are. If they still have the ability to produce nice runs, there’s a spot in the barn for them. I’d rather retire a horse a year too late than a year too early. I raced three 6 YO’s last year, and they all won at least once. Exquisite Secret had an average PSR of 90.71 for the year, managed a couple of 100+ races, and won once. Sadlers Grace had an average PSR of 89.75; she managed a 100 once, and won twice. Majestic Mannerism was very up-and-down, but he even managed to throw a 98 in his win.

The 5YO’s were a pretty nice group as well…

• Black Legacy had a win with a 91, plus had a 114.

• Classy Lady only ran once for us at the end of the year, but it was a 96.

• Correo Expreso averaged 101.43 for the year and picked up 4 wins.

• Dark Glass averaged 82.14 and had a win.

• Enchanting Waltz averaged 98.63 and won twice.

• Flavio averaged 98.11 and won twice.

• Hail to the King didn’t win, but was consistently in the 80’s (plus a 75 and a 95) and averaged 84.5.

• Hyde and Seek was another non-winner, but she did throw an 89 in a 2nd place G3 finish and a 90 in a G1.

• Majestic Motion didn’t win either. Had a 90.75 average in his first 4 before cratering in his final two.

• Maroon Lodge averaged 99 and won three times.

• Maximum Security averaged 94.57 and won once.

• Royal Kiwi averaged 95 and won four times.

• The Big O averaged 92.83 and won four times.

• Wild Wonder averaged 93.25, won once, and cashed in every race.

Close, but no cigar.

I guess the ball didn’t bounce my way every time this year. There were 18 races where one of my horses lost by less than one length. That’s a whole lot of heart-breakers. I had two candidates for the stable’s tough luck horse. Lithium ran three times for us, finished 2nd all three times, with two of the losses being by less than a length (and the 3rd was by a length and a half)! Dare To Win also had two losses by less than a length (one was to a stable mate though) and a third loss by just a length. I can’t really complain though. I also had 30 wins by less than a length. I’m just glad that I didn’t have a heart attack or two from watching all those close finishes.

Just how fast were they?

During the year, my stable set 17 track records, including a world record. This was accomplished by 12 different horses:

• Royal Kiwi – 3

• Dare To Know – 2

• Maroon Lodge – 2

• The Big O – 2

• Correo Expreso – 1

• Dare To Win – 1

• Exquisite Secret – 1

• Flavio – 1

• Metal Stake – 1

• Presidential Ball -1 (WR)

• Quixote – 1

• Under Moonshine – 1

As a stable, we had 67 runs of 100+ PSR’s (21.54%). 141 of the runs (45.34%) were 90+. The breakdown by age:

• 2YO’s – 2 0f 100+, 6 of 90+, 60.38 average

• 3YO’s – 13, 28, 80.49

• 4YO’s – 20, 45, 87.86

• 5YO’s – 29, 53, 90.81

• 6YO’s – 3, 9, 83.66

• Overall – 67, 141, 83.34

So, the 2YO class isn’t very good?

It’s WAY too early to tell. Of the twelve 2YO’s that raced (that’s the whole lot of them), five of them are supposed to be late maturing types (I’m guessing on the 5th one as I’ve never seen the AR). There were two others that were average maturing. These horses did not do well, and aren’t ready yet. So, why race them at all then? Well, I have no faith whatsoever in the AR’s. Since that is the case, all my 2YO’s get at least one start so I can judge for myself where they are. The ones that aren’t close to being ready got only one and sometimes two starts. They’ll get another start next year to check on their progress, and to see if more starts are warranted (or more waiting). I couldn’t care less about “ruining” their record. It makes no sense at all to me to let the “late maturing” horses sit around until later on without ever trying them on the track. For one thing, what happens when the AR is wrong about the rate of maturity? Or a horse can do decently despite the late maturity? I have a “late maturing” horse (and he truly will not be fully mature until 4 or 5), Pass the Soup, that won twice as a 3YO and managed to cash in six of seven starts. He also cashed in two of three as a 2YO. Another reason is that I don’t like the idea of having an un-raced 4 or 5YO that I have no clue whatsoever of what to do with. At least with a few races under the belt, I can get some idea of where they’re at and what to do with them when their moment of maturity finally arrives.

For the most part, the 2YO’s that were supposed to be early maturing did well. Bold Star won four of her six starts. Cry Freedom had a win and finished on the board in his final five starts. Risk The Money finished on the board in two of her three starts, both of them being G3’s. What I’ve Done (a late season acquisition from Foxies Lodge) had a G2 win in two starts.

13:1, baby!

It doesn’t happen often in the game, but the “longer” shots do come in every so often. I had a 13:1 winner…on two separate occasions. The first time it was done by Shrieking Cat in the Marie G. Krantz Memorial Handicap. As the 8th choice of 9 runners, she used her late running style to go from last to first down the stretch. The second 13:1 shot was Under Moonshine in the Racino Inaugural Stakes. He was the 9th choice of 14 horses, and won fairly easily in the mud. As a stable, I had 6 different 13:1 horses on the year. Their record was 6:2-0-1-1, $291,000. Not bad at all.

I OWN Canterbury Park!!!

And Suffolk Downs! And Turfway Park! Ok, well maybe not own. The stable did manage to post a 100% win percentage at those tracks during the year. So, it was only one race each at those tracks. Let’s not confuse the issue with facts.

• Canterbury Park – 1 win (1 start), 100%

• Suffolk Downs – 1 (1), 100%

• Turfway Park – 1 (1), 100%

• Keeneland – 3 (4), 75%

• Sam Houston Race Park – 6 (10), 60%

• Monmouth Park – 3 (5), 60%

• Delta Downs – 4 (7), 57.14 %

• Hawthorne – 2 (4), 50%

• Evangeline Downs – 1 (2), 50%

• Hialeah Park – 1 (2), 50%

• Meadowlands – 1 (2), 50%

• Tampa Bay Downs – 3 (7), 42.86%

• Calder – 2 (5), 40%

• Gulfstream Park – 3 (9), 33.33%

• Louisiana Downs – 2 (6), 33.33%

• Fairplex – 1 (3), 33.33%

• Philadelphia Park – 1 (3), 33.33%

• Colonial Downs – 2 (7), 28.57%

• Santa Anita – 6 (24), 25%

• Churchill Downs – 2 (8), 25%

• Hollywood Park – 3 (15), 20%

• Pinnacle Race Course – 2 (10), 20%

• Del Mar – 1 (5), 20%

• Shenandoah Downs – 10 (52), 19.23%

• Aqueduct – 3 (18), 16.67%

• Belmont Park – 2 (12), 16.67%

• Mountaineer Park – 2 (12), 16.67%

• Woodbine – 2 (12), 16.67%

• Saratoga – 1 (6), 16.67%

• Bay Meadows – 1 (7), 14.29%

• Fair Grounds – 2 (24), 8.33%

• Emerald Downs – 0 (1), 0%

• Hoosier Park – 0 (1), 0%

• Laurel – 0 (1), 0%

• Oaklawn Park – 0 (1), 0%

• Penn National – 0 (1), 0%

• Ruidoso Downs – 0 (1), 0%

• Arlington International – 0 (2), 0%

• Pimlico – 0 (2), 0%

• Remington Park – o (2), 0%

• Delaware Park – 0 (3), 0%

• Lone Star Park – 0 (3), 0%

• Golden Gate Fields – 0 (4), 0%

• Albuquerque – 0 (5), 0%

The one that really sticks out to me is Santa Anita. I’ll take a 25% win rate at that track any year. It’s a fast track with lots of nice races and boat loads of competition. Some might notice something a little strange about that list. That’s right; those tracks are all located in North America. Starting with the 2012 season, I decided to only race at the NA tracks. I want to play the game a bit more realistically. That means none of the “globe-hopping” that is far too common. It was at some point during the 2010 season that I decided to stop doing the “globe-hopping” thing. I still would ship to other countries, but I would leave an appropriate break in between the races. During the 2011 season, I still had racers “based” all over the world. For the most part, they would stay in one particular country (or region) and race. Towards the end of the year, I basically “shipped” all of the overseas horses “home” to the U.S. in preparation for the 2012 season. From this point forward, the plan is to pretty much run in North America exclusively.

You’re still here? It’s over. Go home. Go.

It's that time of year again...

2009-11-27T15:13:00.000-05:00

Time to submit the breeding pairings. In and of itself, it's not really all that exciting. Sure, it's fun figuring out the pairings, fleshing out the five-generation pedigree, and picking out the names. But, it doesn't even compare to the excitement of race day. Not even remotely close. That being said, here is the group of 16 that I'll be excited about...in 2015.

Hammerfest/Veil Of Maya - Unknown Direction x Safe Harbor
Anduril/Sublime Silver - Narsil x Deja vu
Fantastic Fantasy - Fantasy Flight x Worth The Risk
Fantasy Express - Fantasy Flight x Midnight Express
Stick To Your Guns/Radiant Rose - Brilliant x Kupalinka
Arcturus/Southern Star - Sir Empire x Red Star
Sweet Music - Bombtrack x Fine Dancer
Primeval Myth/Primeval Dawn - Honour My Name x The Actress
After Dinner Mint - Unknown Direction x Wood Nymph
Flashy Affair/Flaming Diamond - Brilliant x Sweet Angelic
Bad Hoodoo - Deux Francais x Hyde and Seek
Oberon/In The Pink - Bombtrack x Enchanting Waltz
Blues Slew/Dust Bunny - Misty Mountain Hop x Change of Scenery
Dusty Halo - President Halo x Henry's Slew
Vaguely Honorable/Vaguely Virtuous - Honour My Name x Dark Glass
Candy Corn - Our Differences x Classy Lady

2012 Auction

2009-11-27T04:39:00.000-05:00

The 2012 auction wasn't a very busy one for the stable this year. With limited stall space available, only three horses were targeted (and acquired). The three purchases were Bombtrack, Cielo di Fuoco, and Honour My Name. Two of the purchases, Bombtrack and Honour My Name, were immediately retired to stud duty. Cielo di Fuoco remains in training for the 2013 season, with a possible eye towards being added to the stallion roster in the future.

Bombtrack, a 5YO son of Encosta De Lago, was acquired specifically to cover Enchanting Waltz. The G2 winner will also be paired with Fine Dancer.

Honour My Name returns to the stable after bouncing around a little bit over the past three years. The 8YO has dates lined up with The Actress and Dark Glass.

Cielo di Fuoco, a 4YO son of Dubai Millenium, has won twice in his career. He looked to be coming into his own towards the end of his 3YO season with back-to-back 100+ PSR performances.

Joining the three purchases in the trip back from the auction was Dare To Win. The 5YO received no bids and will continue his racing career under the black and silver silks.